Survival Analysis of Bus Running Time near Bus-Stop Areas
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 145, Issue 4
Abstract
This study proposes a quantitative approach to evaluate the effects of mixed traffic flow on bus running times (except bus dwell times) near bus-stop areas based on linear regression and survival analysis theory. Research data were collected by video cameras at four bus stops in Nanjing, China. The application of the proposed methods with field data indicated that several factors would delay bus running times, i.e., car and nonmotor volume, bus dwell time, bus berth without violation, and nonmotor violations. In addition, the effect of bus lane-changing behavior on bus running times varied from section to section. Moreover, linear and parametric survival models were also developed to estimate bus running times, and both models can capture the effect of factors. The parametric survival models have better fitness performance than the linear models. However, the predictive performance of the two models are distinct at different sections and bus stops. The findings of influential factors and the proposed models could be considered in advanced bus information systems.
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Acknowledgments
This study is partially supported by the National Key R&D Program in China (Grant No. 2016YFB0100906), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61620106002 and 51308115), the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX18_0136), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2242018K30015), as well as support from the program of Zhishan Young Scholar of Southeast University.
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Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 145 • Issue 4 • April 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 15, 2017
Accepted: Aug 20, 2018
Published online: Feb 14, 2019
Published in print: Apr 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jul 14, 2019
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