85th and 98th Percentile Speed Prediction Models of Car, Light, and Heavy Commercial Vehicles for Four-Lane Divided Rural Highways
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 144, Issue 5
Abstract
In this study, the 85th and 98th percentile speed prediction models of car, light, and heavy commercial vehicles for four-lane divided horizontal curves in rural highways were developed using a stepwise multiple linear regression method. In total 10 sites were considered for developing the models and three for validation. Geometric features of horizontal curve and adjacent tangent sections along with vehicle speed at point of curvature and 50 m prior to point of curvature were considered as independent variables. The 85th and 98th percentile speed of car and sport utility vehicle were found to be comparable, and hence combined for further analysis. The 85th percentile speed of commercial vehicles at midcurve were found to be dependent on its speed at preceding section, which was finally predicted based on geometric features considered. For car, it was dependent on curve length and deflection angle. The 98th percentile speed at midcurve of all vehicle types were dependent on its 85th percentile speed. In validation, the root-mean square errors for the developed models were within . The study revealed that curve length could be an important factor in the geometric design procedure.
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Acknowledgments
Authors would like to thank Mr. Mayank Prakash, Ms. Mounica Nagulapally, Mr. David Thangaraj, and Mr. Tushar Choudhari for their support in data collection and extraction. Authors are also thankful to National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for providing the plan and profile, and Mumbai Nasik Expressway Limited (MNEL) for providing support in field data collection. Further, authors are grateful to the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India for providing financial assistance to conduct the study.
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Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 144 • Issue 5 • May 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 10, 2017
Accepted: Oct 24, 2017
Published online: Feb 16, 2018
Published in print: May 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Jul 16, 2018
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