Evaluation of Models to Estimate Percent Time Spent Following on Two-Lane Highways
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 143, Issue 5
Abstract
Four analytical models to estimate percent time spent following (PTSF) on two-lane highways were tested with data from 16 sites in Brazil. Besides percent following, the models are based on shockwave analysis, moving-bottleneck theory, or queuing theory. As direct measurement of the PTSF is impractical, PTSF values produced by a simulation program were the basis for comparison (observed PTSF values). The quality of the PTSF estimates produced by the four models was tested using 442 observations and four goodness-of-fit functions [mean normalized error (MNE), mean absolute normalized error (MANE), root-mean squared normalized error (RMSNE), and correlation coefficient ]. Although some degree of correlation between the estimated and observed PTSF values was detected, none of the four models was able to provide reliable estimates of PTSF, as indicated by high mean normalized errors (around 35%) and mean absolute normalized errors that were, on average, close to 50%.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support from São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP grants 2010/01809-0 and 2013/04267-1) and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq grant 308572/13-0). The authors would also like to thank ARTESP, DER-SP, ViaOeste and Rodovias do Tietê for their support in data collection and for providing traffic data from permanent traffic monitoring stations.
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Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
Volume 143 • Issue 5 • May 2017
Copyright
©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 17, 2016
Accepted: Oct 26, 2016
Published online: Feb 7, 2017
Published in print: May 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Jul 7, 2017
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