Research Article
Dec 1972
Stochastic Population Projection at Design Level
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division
Volume 98, Issue 6
Abstract
A method for stochastic population projection for small areas is developed for use by consulting engineers as a basis for specifying the design capacity of pollution control facilities. Based on the components-of-change model for population growth and a formulation of demographic rates as first-order autoregressive processes, the proposed projection model specifies future population in terms of a probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulation rather than analytical solution is used to derive the probabilities. An analysis of the first results suggests a significant improvement in predictive accuracy over the traditional subjective or deterministic projection models still in widespread use by the environmental engineering profession.
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Published In
Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division
Volume 98 • Issue 6 • December 1972
Pages: 883 - 896
Copyright
© 1972 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Dec 1972
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
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Peter M. Meier, AM.ASCE
Sr. Systems Analyst; Curran Assoc., Inc., Engrs. and Planners, Northampton, Mass., USA
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.