Research Article
Jun 1969
Forecasts with Varying Reliability
Publication: Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division
Volume 95, Issue 3
Abstract
The first major application of computing machines and systems analysis to the design of water resource systems concentrated on the structural components (dams, turbines, diversion works, etc.) and left aside the difficulties inherent in selecting optimal or near-optimal operating policies. Subsequent work, particularly that which dealt with mathematical programming and its several derivatives, offered new insights into the construction of optimal operating schemes. This paper advances one step further in that it combines the selection of components, the specification of optimal operating policies, and the role of streamflow forecasting in a single mathematical entity. No formalism for forecasting is given, but based on a widely accepted model for flow sequences, a technique is developed whereby the analyst can discern whether or not it is useful to include forecasting in the operating policy. The procedure makes extensive use of statistical theory and Monte Carlo analysis.
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Published In
Journal of the Sanitary Engineering Division
Volume 95 • Issue 3 • June 1969
Pages: 629 - 644
Copyright
© 1969 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Jun 1969
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
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Myron B. Fiering, M.ASCE
Assoc. Prof. of Engrg. and Applied Mathematics, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, Mass.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.