Computer Models for Reservoir Regulation

A stochastic linear programming model is structured for defining reservoir-operating policies which satisfy either single or multiple objectives. The discussion is limited to models for regulating a single reservoir subjected to random serially correlated inflows. The probabilistic sequences of inflows are defined by Markov chains. A computer program is outlined for both structuring the model and putting it in a format suitable for solution by the IBM Mathematical Programming System code. An example, based on a simplified version of one of the Finger Lakes in New York State, is used to illustrate both how the policy and the probability distributions of any function of lake levels and discharges can be obtained from the solution of the models. These probability distributions may be used to estimate the risks of flooding or droughts that may occur given a particular policy. This information should be of assistance in planning lake management policies.