Predicting Wind-Induced Response in Hurricane Zones

The procedure appropriate for regions where available wind data are representative of the strong wind climate, as is in regions where extreme winds are due mainly to large-scale weather systems. Recently a study of a major building proposed for New Orleans prompted an extension of the methods to consider effects of rare events such as hurricanes. A Monte Carlo simulation of tropical cyclones was used to generate a series of storms having statistically representative values of intensity, size, and translational motion. In a case study of the building planned for New Orleans, the time history of the wind speed and direction obtained at the structure during the simulations was translated into pressure using measured aerodynamic data. Statistics of extreme pressures were examined and compared to those obtained from predictions based on available local wind observations. The study indicates that hurricane winds generally dominate the forecast for long recurrence intervals.