Research Article
May 1975
Seismic Design Decision Analysis
Authors: Robert V. Whitman, F.ASCE, John M. Biggs, M.ASCE, John E. Brennan III, M.ASCE, C. Allin Cornell, M.ASCE, Richard L. de Neufville, M.ASCE, and Erik H. Vanmarcke, AM.ASCEAuthor Affiliations
Publication: Journal of the Structural Division
Volume 101, Issue 5
Abstract
Seismic design decision analysis is a procedure for organizing into a useful format the information required to arrive at a balance between the cost of designing to give earthquake resistance and the risk of damage and loss of lives in future earthquakes. The likelihood of ground shaking of various intensities is evaluated using Cornell's seismic risk model. Building performance is expressed by damage probability matrices; empirical evidence from past earthquakes — especially the San Fernando, Calif., earthquake — plus theoretical analysis and subjective judgment are used to develop such matrices. The cost of increased seismic resistance is determined by designing a series of typical buildings. All this information is then combined to provide estimates of costs and losses. The apparent conclusion is that design against earthquakes is justified only if one either makes a very consecutive interpretation of the seismic risk or places a very high value on saving lives.
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Published In
Journal of the Structural Division
Volume 101 • Issue 5 • May 1975
Pages: 1067 - 1084
Copyright
© 1975 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: May 1975
Published online: Feb 1, 2021
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Authors
Affiliations
Robert V. Whitman, F.ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, Mass.
John M. Biggs, M.ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, Mass.
John E. Brennan III, M.ASCE
Vice Pres., LeMessurier Assoc., Inc., Cambridge, Mass.
C. Allin Cornell, M.ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, Mass.
Richard L. de Neufville, M.ASCE
Assoc. Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, Mass.
Erik H. Vanmarcke, AM.ASCE
Assoc. Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, Mass
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Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.