Fuzzy Bayesian Network–Based Multidimensional Risk Assessment for Leakage of Blended Hydrogen Natural Gas Pipelines
Publication: Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 15, Issue 2
Abstract
Pipeline transportation is an efficient way to transport hydrogen on a large scale. However, many uncertainties lead to the failure of blended hydrogen natural gas (BHNG) pipelines, involving multiple consequence-based losses. The failure factors of BHNG pipelines have hybrid epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. The present study proposes a multidimensional integration approach to predict the failure risk of BHNG pipelines using fuzzy Bayesian networks (BN). The use of BN constructs topological structures to capture uncertain relationships among critical information. An expert-inspired method synthesizing fuzzy set theory can determine relative probabilities in the framework of cognitive uncertainties, and the analytic hierarchy process is introduced to capture the conditional probabilities. Multiple consequence dimensions were considered to incorporate safety barriers into the consequence risk analysis. The results demonstrate the objectiveness and effectiveness of multidimensional risk evaluation in addressing various risks. Failure risk can be mitigated and prevented by considering multidimensional impact assessment, which minimizes losses of leakage accidents.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 52304258), Natural Science Starting Project of Southwest Petroleum University (No. 2022QHZ001), Young scholars development found of Southwest Petroleum University China (Grant no. 202299010027) and Open Fund (PLN2022-36; PLN2022-40) of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation (Southwest Petroleum University).
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Published In
Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 15 • Issue 2 • May 2024
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© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 24, 2023
Accepted: Dec 4, 2023
Published online: Feb 22, 2024
Published in print: May 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Jul 22, 2024
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