A Decision-Support System for Assessing Cross-Country Pipeline Systems: Approach Based on Evidential Reasoning and Cost–Benefit Analysis
Publication: Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 14, Issue 1
Abstract
This paper outlines a decision-support model based on Evidential Reasoning (ER) and Cost–Benefit-Analysis (CBA) to support the assessment of risk control measures for pipeline loss of containment following third party damage. The model identifies the main Risk Control Options (RCOs) as basic attributes, which are grouped into three categories: technical or technological, governmental, and managerial solutions. The CBA examines the costs associated with the loss of containment regarding human safety, the economic and environmental aspects that are required to reduce or eliminate the threat of using RCOs. ER is chosen because of its capability in dealing with Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problems with uncertainties, aggregation of conflicting information and the hybrid nature of the information. This corresponds with the challenges of analyzing different and often conflicting information identified in this study. The results show the attributes of each decision, their effectiveness in reducing the failure likelihood, and the estimated cost of each attribute. The study reduces the complexity of the decision-making into a simple hierarchical output and provide guidance to the infrastructure operator. This makes it possible for the operator to select one or more risk reduction attributes and immediately see a potential reduction in the failure likelihood. Furthermore, the study provides knowledge to the operator on budgetary expenditure required to implement the RCOs.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the Editor and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions and comments. This research is partially supported by the Federal Government of Nigeria through the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (X00002167).
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Published In
Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 14 • Issue 1 • February 2023
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 26, 2022
Accepted: Sep 6, 2022
Published online: Nov 22, 2022
Published in print: Feb 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Apr 22, 2023
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