Variability, Sensitivity, and Econometric Analyses of Field Density in Pay for Performance Data for Hot-Mix Asphalt in Illinois
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part B: Pavements
Volume 149, Issue 1
Abstract
Pay for Performance (PFP) is a statistical-based quality assurance specification used to evaluate asphalt concrete construction for projects having mix quantities greater than 7,260 t (8,000 US tons). The contractor pay is adjusted based on mix field density, air voids, and voids in mineral aggregate. In this study, data were analyzed from the 2015 to 2017 highway construction seasons in Illinois to determine variability trends. Density was the major factor driving contractor pay disincentives in PFP, followed by air voids. To identify the impact of construction field density consistency on the final pay factor, a sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the changes in the contractor pay with respect to variability, which is measured by standard deviation. In addition, an econometric analysis based on sensitivity analysis using linear regression was conducted. The results showed that a 1% reduction in density standard deviation led to a 0.066 increase in density pay factor. Based on the 79 projects analyzed, if the density standard deviation had been reduced from 1.67 to 1.0, the average increase in pay per project would be $38,000.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Statistical analysis codes generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions. However, the organized data set is available in a report by Al-Qadi et al. (2020).
Acknowledgments
This publication is based on the results from an Illinois Center for Transportation Project, R27-189: Evaluation of Data Trends and Variability in the Quality Control for Performance (QCP) and Pay for Performance (PFP) Programs. The project was conducted in cooperation with the Illinois Department of Transportation and the Illinois Asphalt Pavement Association. The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by the Illinois Department of Transportation (Grant No. R27-189). The help of Jose J. Rivera-Perez, Seunggu Kang, and Javier J. Garcia Mainieri is appreciated. The input of Jim Trepanier, Kevin Burke III, Brian Hill, Dennis Dvorak, Tom Zehr, and other members of the project’s Technical Review Panel is greatly appreciated. The input from Hasan Ozer and Adam Hand is acknowledged.
References
AASHTO. 2018a. Standard method of test for bulk specific gravity () of compacted hot mix asphalt (HMA) using saturated surface-dry specimens. Washington, DC: AASHTO.
AASHTO. 2018b. Standard method of test for theoretical maximum specific gravity () and density of asphalt mixtures. Washington, DC: AASHTO.
Al-Qadi, I. L., J. Rivera-Perez, H. Ozer, W. Sayeh, J. J. G. Mainieri, H. Meidani, J. Huang, and A. J. Hand. 2020. Data trends and variability in quality control for performance and pay for performance specifications: statistical analysis. Rep. No. FHWA-ICT-20-005. Rantoul, IL: Illinois Center for Transportation.
Amirkhanian, S. N., J. L. Burati Jr., and H. C. Mirchandani. 1994. “Effect of testing variability on contractor payment for asphalt pavements.” J. Constr. Eng. Manage. 120 (3): 579–592. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1994)120:3(579).
BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics). 2021. “CPI inflation calculator.” Accessed February 23, 2021. https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm.
Buttlar, W., and A. Manik. 2007. Evaluation of risk in end-result specifications for asphalt pavement construction. Rantoul, IL: Illinois Center for Transportation.
Campbell, H. F., and R. P. Brown. 2003. Benefit-cost analysis: Financial and economic appraisal using spreadsheets. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Haghshenas, H. F., and R. C. Rea. 2019. “In-place density of asphalt pavements: Case study during cold weather paving.” J. Transp. Eng. Part B Pavements 145 (4): 05019003. https://doi.org/10.1061/JPEODX.0000135.
IDOT (Illinois Department of Transportation). 2018a. “Manual of test procedures for materials.” Accessed July 1, 2019. https://idot.illinois.gov/Assets/uploads/files/Doing-Business/Manuals-Guides-&-Handbooks/Highways/Materials/Manual%20of%20Test%20Procedures%20for%20Materials%20December%202018.pdf.
IDOT (Illinois Department of Transportation). 2018b. Special provision for Pay for Performance using percent within limits—Jobsite sampling. Springfield, IL: IDOT.
Mensching, D. J., L. M. McCarthy, Y. A. Mehta, J. Albert, and J. Moulthrop. 2013. “Exploring pay factors based on hot mix asphalt performance using quality-related specification software.” Road Mater. Pavement Des. 14 (4): 792–809. https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2013.813868.
Pohlman, J. T., and D. W. Leitner. 2003. “A comparison of ordinary least squares and logistic regression.” Ohio J. Sci. 103 (5): 118–126.
Samuelson, P. A., T. C. Koopmans, and J. R. N. Stone. 1954. “Report of the evaluative committee for econometrica.” Econometrica 22 (2): 141–146.
Seber, G. A., and A. J. Lee. 2012. Linear regression analysis. New York: Wiley.
Tighe, S. 2001. “Guidelines for probabilistic pavement life cycle cost analysis.” Transp. Res. Rec. 1769 (1): 28–38. https://doi.org/10.3141/1769-04.
Walls, J. 1998. Life-cycle cost analysis in pavement design: In search of better investment decisions. Washington, DC: FHWA, US DOT.
Wang, H., Z. Wang, R. J. Blight, and E. C. Sheehy. 2015. “Derivation of pay adjustment for in-place air void of asphalt pavement from life-cycle cost analysis.” Road Mater. Pavement Des. 16 (3): 505–517. https://doi.org/10.1080/14680629.2015.1020848.
Weisberg, S. 2005. Applied linear regression. New York: Wiley.
Whiteley, L., S. Tighe, and Z. Zhang. 2005. “Incorporating variability into pavement performance, life-cycle cost analysis, and performance-based specification pay factors.” Transp. Res. Rec. 1940 (1): 13–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/0361198105194000102.
Wooldridge, J. M. 2010. Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 17, 2021
Accepted: Sep 16, 2022
Published online: Nov 2, 2022
Published in print: Mar 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Apr 2, 2023
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.