Scholarly Papers
Jun 7, 2023

Correlation and Causation in Construction Claims

Publication: Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction
Volume 15, Issue 3

Abstract

In construction claims, in order to prevail, contractors must establish entitlement, causation, and quantum. Though all these aspects can be very challenging, proof of causation often is subtle and intangible. There is no well-defined or one-size-fits-all formula for causation proving identified or endorsed by the courts or boards of contract appeals. In some construction claims, correlation analysis is seen as part of causation demonstration. It often faces the pushback or criticism in the context of the saying correlation is not causation. Then what is the difference between correlation and causation? Under what circumstances or conditions can correlation represent causation? This paper will discuss these issues from mathematical and practical perspectives and provide useful guidelines of using correlation analysis to demonstrate causation in construction claims.

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Data Availability Statement

No data, models, or code were generated or used during the study.

References

List of Cases

Aetna Cas. & Surety Co. v. George Hyman Constr. Co., No. 93-4750, 1998 US Dist. LEXIS 22627, at *255-56 (E.D. Pa. May 15, 1998).
Appeal of Bay Constr. Co., 02-1 B.C.A. (CCH) 31,795; 2002 VABCA LEXIS 4, *86 (2002).
Appeal of Bechtel National, Inc. NASA BCA No. 1186-7, 90-1 BCA 22,549.
Appeal of Dawson Construction Co., Inc., 93-3 B.C.A. (CCH) 26,177; 1993 VABCA LEXIS 20, *187 (1993).
Appeal of Hensel Phelps Const. Co., 99-2 B.C.A. (CCH) 30531 (1999).
Appeal of J.A. Jones Constr. Co. ENGBCA Nos. 6348, 6386-6391, 00-2 BCA 31,000 (2000).
Appeal of Montgomery-Ross-Fisher, Inc. PSBCA Nos. 1033, 1096, 84-2 BCA 17,492.
Appeal of R.W. Contracting Inc., 84-2 B.C.A. (CCH) K 17,302, ASBCA (1984).
Appeal of Southwest Marine, Inc. DOTCAB No. 1663, 94-3 BCA 127,102.
Appeal of the Clark Constr. Group, Inc., 2000-1 B.C.A. (CCH) 30,870 VABCA (2000).
Fortec Contractors v. United States, 8 Cl. Ct. 490, 505 (1985).
Fru-Con Constr. Corp. v. United States, 43 Fed. Cl. 306, 335-37 (1999).
Luria Bros & Co. v. United States, 369 F.2d 701, 712 (Ct. Cl. 1966).
Servidone Construction Corp. v. United States, 931 F.2d 860, 861 (Fed. Cir. 1991).

Works Cited

AACE (Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering). 2004. Estimating lost labor productivity in construction claims. Morgantown, WV: AACE.
AACE (Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering). 2011. Forensic schedule analysis. Morgantown, WV: AACE.
Ben-Yami, H. 2007. “The impossibility of backwards causation.” Philos. Q. 57 (228): 439–455. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9213.2007.494.x.
Finke, M. R. 1996. “Claims for construction productivity losses.” Public Constr. Law J. 26 (3): 311–334.
Kenny, D. A. 1979. Correlation and causality. New York: Wiley.
Pearl, J. 2009. Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference. 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Salkind, N. J. 2010. Encyclopedia of research design. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE.
Trochim, W. M., and J. P. Donnelly. 2016. Research methods: The essential knowledge base. 2nd ed. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.
Zhao, T., and J. M. Dungan. 2014. “Proving lost productivity in international construction claims.” Florida Bar 32 (2): 11–12.
Zhao, T., J. M. Dungan, and X. Liu. 2020. “Defending against loss of productivity claims.” AACE Int. Source 2020 (3): 15–19.

Information & Authors

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Published In

Go to Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction
Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction
Volume 15Issue 3August 2023

History

Received: Nov 19, 2022
Accepted: Apr 11, 2023
Published online: Jun 7, 2023
Published in print: Aug 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Nov 7, 2023

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Authors

Affiliations

Tong Zhao, Ph.D., M.ASCE [email protected]
P.E.
Senior Director, Delta Consulting Group, Inc., 4330 Prince William Pkwy, Ste 301, Woodbridge, VA 22192. Email: [email protected]

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Cited by

  • Navigating the Complexity of Dispute Management in Construction: A DEMATEL and Bayesian Network Approach, Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 10.1061/JLADAH.LADR-1143, 17, 1, (2025).

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