Climate-Induced Annual and Interannual Processual Shifts in Ecohydrological Regimes and Their Evaluations in Jinsha River Basin, China
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 28, Issue 11
Abstract
This study develops a four-module-based multimodel framework, coupled with the projections of general circulation models (GCMs), a hydrological model (SWAT), and two sets of evaluation indicators [Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and River Regime Index (RRI)], to systematically quantify the response of ecohydrological regimes to climatic change. The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) was selected as a target area for both framework verification and application analysis because of its precious natural conditions, privileged abundant hydropower, and extremely rich fish resources. Results revealed that: (1) temperature and precipitation in the JRB would show increasing trends to varying degrees in the future. The increase in temperature would be much higher than that in precipitation, and the increment would be more significant during the end of the century (2068–2097). (2) The future runoff in the JRB may face an overall decreasing trend, leading to more and more frequent drought disasters. (3) The disturbances in the ecohydrological regime would result in more concentrated runoff and smoother hydrological pulse fluctuations in the JRB, meaning human-assisted participation would be required for the conservation of reproduction and development of ecological resources like Coreius guichenoti. Our findings suggest that effective management of future watershed resources can only be accomplished if an in-depth and comprehensive hydrological evaluation of changing climate is made, and the protection and sustainable development of ecological resources of the JRB in the future will require the participation of stakeholders. Figuring out the alteration in ecohydrological regimes under natural variation and its potential hazards may guide the degree of human participation in futural river protection.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP), Grant No. 2019QZKK0203, the Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling Fund (JBGS2102), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (0209-14380097).
References
Abbaspour, K. C., J. Yang, I. Maximov, R. Siber, K. Bogner, J. Mieleitner, J. Zobrist, and R. Srinivasan. 2007. “Modelling hydrology and water quality in the pre-alpine/alpine Thur watershed using SWAT.” J. Hydrol. 333 (2–4): 413–430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.014.
Arnell, N. W., and S. N. Gosling. 2013. “The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale.” J. Hydrol. 486 (Apr): 351–364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010.
Brown, C., Y. Ghile, M. Laverty, and K. Li. 2012. “Decision scaling: Linking bottom-up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector.” Water Resour. Res. 48 (9): W09537. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011212.
Bunn, S. E., and A. H. Arthington. 2002. “Basic principles and ecological consequences of altered flow regimes for aquatic biodiversity.” Environ. Manage. 30 (Oct): 492–507. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-002-2737-0.
Chalise, D. R., A. Sankarasubramanian, J. D. Olden, and A. Ruhi. 2023. “Spectral signatures of flow regime alteration by dams across the United States.” Earth’s Future 11 (2): e2022EF003078. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003078.
Chelsea Nagy, R. C., B. Graeme Lockaby, L. Kalin, and C. Anderson. 2012. “Effects of urbanization on stream hydrology and water quality: The Florida Gulf Coast.” Hydrol. Processes 26 (13): 2019–2030. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8336.
Chen, J., F. P. Brissette, and P. Lucas-Picher. 2015. “Assessing the limits of bias-correcting climate model outputs for climate change impact studies.” J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 120 (3): 1123–1136. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022635.
Chen, J., C. Gao, X. Zeng, M. Xiong, Y. Wang, C. Jing, V. Krysanova, J. Huang, N. Zhao, and B. Su. 2017. “Assessing changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin: Approach by using multiple-GCMs and hydrological models.” Quat. Int. 453 (Sep): 63–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2017.01.017.
Chen, X., W. Chen, and G. Huang. 2021. “Future climatic projections and hydrological responses in the Upper Beijiang River basin of south China using bias-corrected RegCM 4.6 data.” J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 126 (19): e2021JD034550. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034550.
Cheng, F., W. Li, L. Castello, B. R. Murphy, and S. Xie. 2015. “Potential effects of dam cascade on fish: Lessons from the Yangtze River.” Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 25 (3): 569–585. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-015-9395-9.
CIMP6. 2020. WCRP coupled model intercomparison project (phase 6). Geneva: World Climate Research Programme.
Deser, C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng. 2010. “Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability.” Clim. Dyn. 38 (Feb): 527–546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x.
Dong, F., A. Javed, A. Saber, A. Neumann, C. A. Arnillas, G. Kaltenecker, and G. Arhonditsis. 2021. “A flow-weighted ensemble strategy to assess the impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology.” J. Hydrol. 594 (1): 125898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125898.
Du, T., L. Xiong, C.-Y. Xu, C. J. Gippel, S. Guo, and P. Liu. 2015. “Return period and risk analysis of nonstationary low-flow series under climate change.” J. Hydrol. 527 (Aug): 234–250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.041.
Eccles, R., H. Zhang, D. Hamilton, R. Trancoso, and J. Syktus. 2021. “Impacts of climate change on streamflow and floodplain inundation in a coastal subtropical catchment.” Adv. Water Resour. 147 (Jan): 103825. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103825.
Evin, G., B. Hingray, J. Blanchet, N. Eckert, S. Morin, and D. Verfaillie. 2019. “Partitioning uncertainty components of an incomplete ensemble of climate projections using data augmentation.” J. Clim. 32 (8): 2423–2440. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0606.1.
Eyring, V., S. Bony, G. A. Meehl, C. A. Senior, B. Stevens, R. J. Stouffer, and K. E. Taylor. 2016. “Overview of the coupled model intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization.” Geosci. Model Dev. 9 (5): 1937–1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.
Fang, D., L. Hao, Z. Cao, X. Huang, M. Qin, J. Hu, Y. Liu, and G. Sun. 2020. “Combined effects of urbanization and climate change on watershed evapotranspiration at multiple spatial scales.” J. Hydrol. 587 (Aug): 124869. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124869.
GCB. 2019. Global climate background. Beijing: China Meteorological Data Service Center.
Gebremicael, T. G., Y. A. Mohamed, and P. Van der Zaag. 2019. “Attributing the hydrological impact of different land use types and their long-term dynamics through combining parsimonious hydrological modelling, alteration analysis and PLSR analysis.” Sci. Total Environ. 660 (Apr): 1155–1167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.085.
Guo, B., J. Zhang, X. Meng, T. Xu, and Y. Song. 2020. “Long-term spatio-temporal precipitation variations in China with precipitation surface interpolated by ANUSPLIN.” Sci. Rep. 10 (1): 81. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-57078-3.
Haghighi, A. T., and B. Kløve. 2013. “Development of a general river regime index (RRI) for intra-annual flow variation based on the unit river concept and flow variation end-points.” J. Hydrol. 503 (Oct): 169–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.041.
Huang, X.-R., L.-Y. Gao, P.-P. Yang, and Y.-Y. Xi. 2018. “Cumulative impact of dam constructions on streamflow and sediment regime in lower reaches of the Jinsha River, China.” J. Mountain Sci. 15 (12): 2752–2765. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4924-3.
HWSD. 2013. Harmonized world soil database ver. 1.1. Laxenburg, Austria: FAO and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Ju, X., Y. Wang, D. Wang, V. P. Singh, P. Xu, J. Wu, T. Ma, J. Liu, and J. Zhang. 2021. “A time-varying drought identification and frequency analyzation method: A case study of Jinsha River basin.” J. Hydrol. 603 (Dec): 126864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126864.
Kalin, L., S. Isik, J. E. Schoonover, and B. G. Lockaby. 2010. “Predicting water quality in unmonitored watersheds using artificial neural networks.” J. Environ. Qual. 39 (4): 1429–1440. https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2009.0441.
Li, D., X. X. Lu, X. Yang, L. Chen, and L. Lin. 2018. “Sediment load responses to climate variation and cascade reservoirs in the Yangtze River: A case study of the Jinsha River.” Geomorphology 322 (Dec): 41–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.08.038.
Li, H., J. Sheffield, and E. F. Wood. 2010. “Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from intergovernmental panel on climate change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching.” J. Geophy. Res.: Atmos. 115 (May): D10101. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012882.
López-Ballesteros, A., J. Senent-Aparicio, C. Martínez, and J. Pérez-Sánchez. 2020. “Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece).” Sci. Total Environ. 733 (Sep): 139299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139299.
Ma, H., D. Yang, S. K. Tan, B. Gao, and Q. Hu. 2010. “Impact of climate variability and human activity on streamflow decrease in the Miyun Reservoir catchment.” J. Hydrol. 389 (3–4): 317–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.010.
Mao, Y., Z. Wu, H. He, G. Lu, H. Xu, and Q. Lin. 2017. “Spatio-temporal analysis of drought in a typical plain region based on the soil moisture anomaly percentage index.” Sci. Total Environ. 576 (Jan): 752–765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.116.
Miao, C., H. Ashouri, K.-L. Hsu, S. Sorooshian, and Q. Duan. 2015. “Evaluation of the PERSIANN-CDR daily rainfall estimates in capturing the behavior of extreme precipitation events over China.” J. Hydrometeorol. 16 (3): 1387–1396. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0174.1.
Miao, C. Y., L. Su, Q. H. Sun, and Q. Y. Duan. 2016. “A nonstationary bias-correction technique to remove bias in GCM simulations.” J. Geophy. Res.: Atmos. 121 (10): 5718–5735. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024159.
Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer. 2008. “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?” Science 319 (5863): 573–574. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915.
Mittal, N., A. G. Bhave, A. Mishra, and R. Singh. 2016. “Impact of human intervention and climate change on natural flow regime.” Water Resour. Manage. 30 (Jan): 685–699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1185-6.
Mittal, N., A. Mishra, R. Singh, A. G. Bhave, and M. van der Valk. 2014. “Flow regime alteration due to anthropogenic and climatic changes in the Kangsabati River, India.” Ecohydrol. Hydrobiol. 14 (3): 182–191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2014.06.002.
Moriasi, D. N., J. G. Arnold, M. W. Van Liew, R. L. Binger, R. D. Harmel, and T. L. Veith. 2007. “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations.” Trans. ASABE 50 (3): 885–900. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153.
MWR (Ministry of Water Resources of China). 2020. Chinese water yearbook 1964–2002. Beijing: Hydrology Bureau, MWR.
Nash, J. E., and J. V. Sutcliffe. 1970. “River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I—A discussion of principles.” J. Hydrol. 10 (3): 282–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6.
NDVI 100M. 2019. China’s monthly 100M vegetation index (NDVI) spatial distribution dataset. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Neitsch, S. L., J. G. Arnold, J. R. Kiniry, R. Srinivasan, and J. R. Williams. 2004. Soil and water assessment tool input/output file documentation version 2005, Grassland. Temple, TX: US Dept. of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory.
Pang, S., X. Wang, C. S. Melching, and K.-H. Feger. 2020. “Development and testing of a modified swat model based on slope condition and precipitation intensity.” J. Hydrol. 588 (Sep): 125098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125098.
Poff, N. L., J. D. Allan, M. B. Bain, J. R. Karr, K. L. Prestegaard, B. D. Richter, R. Sparks, and J. Stromberg. 1997. “The natural flow regime: A new paradigm for riverine conservation and restoration.” Bioscience 47 (11): 769–784. https://doi.org/10.2307/1313099.
Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui, and M. Polakowski. 2005. “Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles.” Mon. Weather Rev. 133 (5): 1155–1174. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2906.1.
Räsänen, T. A., P. Someth, H. Lauri, J. Koponen, J. Sarkkula, and M. Kummu. 2017. “Observed river discharge changes due to hydropower operations in the Upper Mekong basin.” J. Hydrol. 545 (Feb): 28–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.12.023.
Richter, B., J. Baumgartner, R. Wigington, and D. Braun. 1997. “How much water does a river need?” Freshwater Biol. 37 (1): 231–249. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2427.1997.00153.x.
Richter, B. D., J. V. Baumgartner, J. Powell, and D. P. Braun. 1996. “A method for assessing hydrologic alteration within ecosystems.” Conserv. Biol. 10 (4): 1163–1174. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10041163.x.
Salvadore, E., J. Bronders, and O. Batelaan. 2015. “Hydrological modelling of urbanized catchments: A review and future directions.” J. Hydrol. 529 (Oct): 62–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.028.
Siddiqui, S. F., X. Zapata-Rios, S. Torres-Paguay, A. C. Encalada, E. P. Anderson, M. Allaire, C. R. da Costa Doria, and D. A. Kaplan. 2021. “Classifying flow regimes of the Amazon basin.” Aquat. Conserv. Mar. Freshwater Ecosyst. 31 (5): 1005–1028. https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3582.
Sivelle, V., H. Jourde, D. Bittner, N. Mazzilli, and Y. Tramblay. 2021. “Assessment of the relative impacts of climate changes and anthropogenic forcing on spring discharge of a Mediterranean karst system.” J. Hydrol. 598 (Jul): 126396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126396.
STRMDEM 90M. 2019. Shuttle radar topography mission digital elevation model 90M. Washington, DC: USGS.
Sun, H. L., and W. X. Cao. 2008. Ecological and environmental problems in the upper Yangtze River. [In Chinese.] Beijing: China Environmental Science Press.
Sun, T., and M. L. Feng. 2013. “Multistage analysis of hydrologic alterations in the Yellow River, China.” River Res. Appl. 29 (8): 991–1003. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.2586.
Tan, M. L., A. L. Ibrahim, Z. Yusop, V. P. Chua, and N. W. Chan. 2017. “Climate change impacts under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on water resources of the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia.” Atmos. Res. 189 (Jun): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.01.008.
Tang, H. Y., Z. Yang, S. B. Gao, J. S. Chen, Y. C. Zhang, L. Wan, and Y. Qiao. 2012. “Status of fish resources of early life history stages of Coreius guichenoti in the middle reaches of the Jinsha River.” Sichuan J. Zool. 31 (3): 416–421.
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl. 2012. “An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93 (4): 485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
van Oorschot, M., M. Kleinhans, T. Buijse, G. Geerling, and H. Middelkoop. 2018. “Combined effects of climate change and dam construction on riverine ecosystems.” Ecol. Eng. 120 (Sep): 329–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2018.05.037.
Vu, T. M., and A. K. Mishra. 2019. “Nonstationary frequency analysis of the recent extreme precipitation events in the United States.” J. Hydrol. 575 (Aug): 999–1010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.090.
Wood, A. W., L. R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2004. “Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs.” Clim. Change 62 (1–3): 189–216. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e.
Wu, G. Y., J. Chen, Q. H. Chen, L. Gu, H. M. Wang, and H. Chen. 2019. “Spatiotemporal variation of hydro-meteorological drought in Jinsha River basin in recent 50 years.” [In Chinese.] Yangtze River 50 (11): 84–90.
Xiong, M., J. Li, and Y. Chen. 2020. “Runoff trend and natural driving force in the upper Jinsha River.” J. Water Resour. Res. 9 (3): 235–248. https://doi.org/10.12677/jwrr.2020.93025.
Yang, L., Q. Feng, Z. Yin, R. C. Deo, X. Wen, J. Si, and W. Liu. 2020. “Regional hydrology heterogeneity and the response to climate and land surface changes in arid alpine basin, northwest China.” Catena 187 (Apr): 104345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.104345.
Zhang, H., J. Zhou, X. Zeng, L. Ye, and C. Meng. 2015. “Inconsistency analysis of spatial and temporal evolution of precipitation and runoff in Jinshajiang River basin.” J. China Hydrol. 35 (6): 90–96.
Zhao, J., L. Chong, T. Yang, Y. Tang, Y. Yin, X. Luan, and S. Sun. 2020. “Estimation of high spatiotemporal resolution actual evapotranspiration by combining the SWH model with the metric model.” J. Hydrol. 586 (Jul): 124883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124883.
Zhou, L., Y. Meng, S. A. Vaghefi, P. A. Marras, C. Sui, C. Lu, and K. C. Abbaspour. 2020a. “Uncertainty-based metal budget assessment at the watershed scale: Implications for environmental management practices.” J. Hydrol. 584 (May): 124699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124699.
Zhou, S. C. 2010. “Speeding up the development of Jinsha River hydropower is the need of my country’s economic and social development—Summary of Jinsha River hydropower development.” [In Chinese.] Sichuan Hydropower 29 (6): 252–253.
Zhou, X., X. Huang, H. Zhao, and K. Ma. 2020b. “Development of a revised method for indicators of hydrologic alteration for analyzing the cumulative impacts of cascading reservoirs on flow regime.” Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 24 (8): 4091–4107. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4091-2020.
Zhuo, G., J. Jian, and C.-R. Bian Ba. 2011. “Runoff of the Jinsha River: Characteristics and its response to climate change.” [In Chinese.] J. Glaciol. Geocryology 33 (2): 405–415.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 28 • Issue 11 • November 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 31, 2022
Accepted: Jun 12, 2023
Published online: Sep 13, 2023
Published in print: Nov 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Feb 13, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.