Stochastic Model of Dynamic Eutrophic Estuary

A stochastic model for a one-dimensional estuary has been formulated. It was found that with the addition of a single new parameter, a stochastic model can be built from its deterministic counterpart. The derivation was sufficiently general to permit any number of components and any reasonable system configuration to be handled. All system parameters, conditions, and forcing functions could be continuous functions of time (not just tidal phase), position, and if necessary, other factors. Due to space limitations, the deterministic model used could not be analyzed but will be presented later in a second article. The Potomac estuary was modeled for the period January to October 1969. Measured and predicted concentrations were compared in their means and in the distributions with good agreement. The use of this model for modeling other estuaries is recommended.