Construction Duration Estimation for Airport Terminals in China: Case-Based Reasoning Model Considering Case Retrieval Methods and Case Retention Strategies
Publication: Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 149, Issue 10
Abstract
Due to the substantial economic and social benefits brought about by the timely completion of airport projects, it is important to accurately estimate construction duration and set reasonable project schedule goals during the project planning phase. However, the uncertainties and complexities associated with terminal construction projects limit the applicability of traditional duration estimation methods. Case-based reasoning (CBR) has been applied to estimate the construction duration for complex projects with sparse information in the early project stage, but a few of the detailed CBR procedures warrant further investigation for enhancing the estimation performance. Therefore, a CBR model with improved case retrieval and case retention strategies was established to enhance its performance in predicting the duration of airport terminal construction. After identifying the key factors influencing construction duration, the CBR models were developed with 48 terminal construction projects in China according to the following four steps: (1) retrieve cases by using three weight assignment methods and five similarity measurement methods, (2) reuse the solutions of the retrieved cases, (3) revise the solutions by performing multiple regression analysis (MRA), and (4) retain the new cases based on the case retention strategy. The performance of the CBR models was then evaluated by using 12 test cases and comparing the resulting absolute percentage error (APE) and standard deviation (SD) values. The results verified that the genetic algorithm (GA)-based CBR models using gray correlation, Euclidean distance, and fractional function to calculate similarities outperformed their model counterparts, and they confirmed the usefulness of the proposed case retention strategy for improving estimation accuracy. This research contributes to the improvement and expansion of CBR-based duration estimation models and provides a valuable auxiliary tool for practitioners to make more rational decisions during the schedule planning and control of airport construction projects.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the research program of the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
Volume 149 • Issue 10 • October 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 23, 2022
Accepted: May 8, 2023
Published online: Jul 24, 2023
Published in print: Oct 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Dec 24, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Airport terminals
- Business management
- Case studies
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Construction methods
- Engineering fundamentals
- Geotechnical engineering
- Geotechnical investigation
- Infrastructure
- Management methods
- Methodology (by type)
- Model accuracy
- Models (by type)
- Penetration tests
- Practice and Profession
- Project management
- Research methods (by type)
- Scheduling
- Terminal facilities
- Transportation engineering
- Transportation management
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