Research Article
Jun 1979
Simulation of Construction Project Duration
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VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of the Construction Division
Volume 105, Issue 2
Abstract
MUD (model for uncertainty determination) will simulate the progress under uncertainty of the typical construction project on which the activity durations are not independent of each other. Monte Carlo simulation models the effects of uncertainties that are independent of calendar date. Daily progress under uncertain weather is simulated using historical weather data. Activity criticalities are computed for the simulated activity times. The samples from multiple simulations of a project are combined by MUD to calculate a range estimate (mean and standard duration) for activity and project durations, times, and criticality. A small example project illustrates some of the capabilities of MUD.
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Published In
Journal of the Construction Division
Volume 105 • Issue 2 • June 1979
Pages: 117 - 128
Copyright
© 1979 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Jun 1979
Published online: Feb 11, 2021
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Authors
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Robert I. Carr, M.ASCE
Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.