Integrating Climate Change Projections in Building Performance Simulations: Case Study of 17 North American Cities

Building simulation tools can empower architects to evaluate and optimize the performance of their designs. Therefore, it is essential to integrate building performance simulation modeling from an early design stage. A critical part of the simulated environment is the weather file. It is a compilation of 20–30 years of historical weather and hourly data on temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The accuracy and contextual relevance of said data are of utmost importance to the integrity of the analysis. Current energy modeling weather files are unlikely to include any indication of risk from potential climate change. Hence, there is a need to incorporate climate change projections in energy simulations and prepare architects to understand better the evolution of design strategies echoing such climate change in different climate zones. This paper describes the process of using the CCWorldWeatherGen tool to morph Energy Plus Weather files of 17 North American cities in key climate zones into three simulated scenarios representing 2020, 2050, and 2080, corresponding to a 1.5°C global temperature rise. By simulating the impact of the morphed weather files on five commercial building models, this paper outlines a database echoing the projected climate change impacts within the selected locations and highlights the critical impact of passive design strategies in facilitating indoor thermal comfort while limiting energy consumption.