Abstract

Two traditional methods when calculating slope failure risk (R) are the rigid body limit equilibrium (LEM) and finite-element methods (FEM). However, the LEM requires the previous assumption of the location and shape of the sliding surface; and the FEM needs to carry out postprocessing to estimate the slope sliding surfaces. This paper proposed an element failure risk method (EFR) to calculate R based on plastic limit analysis. The proposed method did not require any assumptions about the failure modes. The safety factors and velocity fields were first computed based on the stochastic programming model that used random soil shear strength parameters. The failure of the elements and R was evaluated and calculated. An efficient upper bound method (UBM) parallel computation was programmed based on Python, which enhanced computational efficiency. Two classic cases were conducted to validate the proposed method. The results showed that the proposed method could accurately calculate the probability and R. This broadened the applications of the EFR method in the risk assessment of slope stability.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12162018 and 12262016).

Notation

The following symbols are used in this paper:
Ae
area of element e (m2);
ab
coordinate transformation matrix of finite element b on the boundary;
ad1
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of velocity d;
ad2
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of velocity d;
ae1
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of finite element e;
ae2
matrix of plastic flow constraint conditions of finite element e;
Ce
failure consequence coefficient of finite element e;
Cf
failure consequence coefficient of the slope;
Ci
failure consequence coefficient of the ith failure mode;
I[tm]
failure function of the slope that corresponded to the random number of the shear tmth parameter;
Ie[tm]
failure function of finite element e that corresponded to the random number of the shear tmth parameter;
km
random variable of safety factor;
kγ
random variable of overload factor of volume weight;
Nb
number of finite elements on the boundary of the soil slope;
Nd
number of velocity d in the soil slope;
Ne
number of finite elements in the soil slope;
Nf
number of failure modes;
Nm
quantity of material for the soil cohesion and the friction angle of the Monte Carlo random number;
P[km(x)]
failure probability of the failure mode that corresponded to the safety factor of km(x);
Pf
failure probability of the slope;
Pf,e
failure probability of finite element e;
Pf,i
failure probability of ith failure mode;
Pf,e∈Part1
failure probability of finite element in Part 1;
Pf,Part1
failure probability in Part 1;
Pf,e∈Part2
failure probability of finite element in Part 2;
Pf,Part 2
failure probability in Part 2;
Pf,e∈Part3
failure probability of finite element in Part 3;
Pf,Part3
failure probability in Part 3;
Pf,e∈Part4
failure probability of finite element in Part 4;
Pf,Part4
failure probability in Part 4;
Pf,e∈Partx
failure probability of elements that included all x-failure modes;
pie
pore water pressure of triangular element e;
R
failure risk of the slope;
Re
failure risk of finite element e;
Ri
failure risk of ith failure mode;
ub
velocity vector of boundary finite element b;
ud
velocity vector of velocity d;
ue
velocity vector of finite element e;
vce
the centroid velocity of finite element e;
vxkd
velocity of the kth node (k = 1, 2, 3, 4) on velocity d plane in x-direction;
vxje
velocity of nodes j (j = 1, 2, 3) in finite element e in x-direction;
vykd
velocity of the kth node (k = 1, 2, 3, 4) on velocity d plane in y-direction;
vyje
velocity of nodes j (j = 1, 2, 3) in finite element e in y-direction;
We
internal power of finite element;
Wep
external work power of pore water pressure in element continuous body;
Wd
internal power of velocity d;
Wdp
external work power exerted by pore water pressure on velocity d;
WG
external work power exerted by the dead weight on velocity of element nodes;
Z
limit state function of slope;
λd
vector of nonnegative plastic multiplier of velocity d; and
λe
vector of nonnegative plastic multiplier of finite element e.

References

Ali, A., J. Huang, A. V. Lyamin, S. W. Sloan, D. V. Griffiths, M. J. Cassidy, and J. H. Li. 2014. “Simplified quantitative risk assessment of rainfall-induced landslides modelled by infinite slopes.” Eng. Geol. 179 (Complete): 102–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.06.024.
Cassidy, M. J., M. Uzielli, and S. Lacasse. 2008. “Probability risk assessment of landslides: A case study at Finneidfjord.” Can. Geotech. J. 45 (9): 1250–1267. https://doi.org/10.1139/T08-055.
Cheng, Y. M., T. Lansivaara, and W. B. Wei. 2007. “Two-dimensional slope stability analysis by limit equilibrium and strength reduction methods.” Comput. Geotech. 34 (3): 137–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2006.10.011.
Ching, J., K. K. Phoon, and Y. G. Hu. 2009. “Efficient evaluation of reliability for slopes with circular slip surfaces using importance sampling.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 135 (6): 768–777. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000035.
Chowdhury, R. N., and D. W. Xu. 1995. “Geotechnical system reliability of slopes.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 47 (3): 141–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(94)00063-T.
Duncan, M. J. 2000. “Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 126 (4): 307–316. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2000)126:4(307).
Huang, J., A. V. Lyamin, D. V. Griffiths, K. Krabbenhoft, and S. W. Sloan. 2013. “Quantitative risk assessment of landslide by limit analysis and random fields.” Comput. Geotech. 53 (Sep.): 60–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2013.04.009.
Huang, J. S., D. V. Griffiths, and G. A. Fenton. 2010. “System reliability of slopes by RFEM.” Soils Found. 50 (3): 343–353. https://doi.org/10.3208/sandf.50.343.
Ji, J., and B. K. Low. 2012. “Stratified response surfaces for system probabilistic evaluation of slopes.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 138 (11): 1398–1406. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000711.
Ji, J., C. Zhang, Y. Gui, Q. Lue, and J. Kodikara. 2016. “New observations on the application of LS-SVM in slope system reliability analysis.” J. Comput. Civ. Eng. 31 (2): 06016002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000620.
Jiang, S. H., B. W. Wei, C. Yao, and J. H. Yang. 2016. “Reliability analysis of soil slopes at low-probability levels considering effect of probability distributions.” Chin. J. Geotech. Eng. 38 (6): 1071–1080. https://doi.org/10.11779/CJGE201606014.
Li, D. Q., T. Xiao, Z. J. Cao, X. S. Tang, and K. K. Phoon. 2016a. “Auxiliary slope reliability analysis using limit equilibrium method and finite element method.” Chin. J. Geotech. Eng. 38 (6): 1004–1013. https://doi.org/10.11779/CJGE201606005.
Li, D. Q., T. Xiao, Z. J. Cao, C. B. Zhou, and K. K. Phoon. 2016b. “Slope risk assessment using efficient random finite element method.” Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 37 (7): 1994–2003. https://doi.org/10.16285/j.rsm.2016.07.021.
Li, D. Q., T. Xiao, Z. J. Cao, C. B. Zhou, and L. M. Zhang. 2016c. “Enhancement of random finite element method in reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes using subset simulation.” Landslides 13 (2): 293–303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0569-2.
Li, D. Q., Z. Y. Yang, Z. J. Cao, and L. M. Zhang. 2018. “Area failure probability method for slope system failure risk assessment.” Comput. Geotech. 107: 36–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2018.11.017.
Li, Z., Y. Chen, Y. K. Guo, X. Y. Zhang, and S. G. Du. 2021. “Element failure probability of soil slope under consideration of random groundwater level.” Int. J. Geomech. 21 (7): 04021108. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GM.1943-5622.0002063.
Li, Z., Z. Hu, X. Y. Zhang, S. G. Du, Y. K. Guo, and J. Wang. 2019. “Reliability analysis of a rock slope based on plastic limit analysis theory with multiple failure modes.” Comput. Geotech. 110 (Jun.): 132–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2019.02.021.
Liu, S. Y., L. T. Shao, and H. J. Li. 2015. “Slope stability analysis using the limit equilibrium method and two finite element methods.” Comput. Geotech. 63: 291–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2014.10.008.
Lysmer, J. 1970. “Limit analysis of plane problems in soil mechanics.” J. Soil. Mech. Found. Div. 96 (4): 1131–1334. https://doi.org/10.1061/JSFEAQ.0001441.
Silva, F., T. W. Lambe, and W. A. Marr. 2008. “Probability and risk of slope failure.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 134 (12): 1691–1699. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2008)134:12(1691).
Sloan, S. W. 1988. “Lower bound limit analysis using finite elements and linear programming.” Int. J. Numer. Anal. Methods Geomech. 12 (1): 61–77. https://doi.org/10.1002/nag.1610120105.
Sloan, S. W. 2013. “Geotechnical stability analysis.” Géotechnique 63 (7): 531–572. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.12.RL.001.
Sloan, S. W., and P. W. Kleeman. 1995. “Upper bound limit analysis using discontinuous velocity fields.” Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 127 (1–4): 293–314. https://doi.org/10.1016/0045-7825(95)00868-1.
Wang, J. X., and Z. Li. 2007. “Upper bound analysis of stability of soil slope subjected to pore water pressure using finite elements.” Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 4 (2): 213–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1874-8651(08)60066-6.
Wang, Z. Z., and S. H. Goh. 2021. “Novel approach to efficient slope reliability analysis in spatially variable soils.” Eng. Geol. 281: 105989. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105989.
Yang, Z. Y., D. Q. Li, Z. J. Cao, and X. S. Tang. 2019. “Region probability method for soil slope risk assessment involving multiple failure modes.” Eng. Mech. 36 (5): 216–225, 234. https://doi.org/10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2018.03.0171.
Zhang, J., and H. W. Huang. 2016. “Risk assessment of slope failure considering multiple slip surfaces.” Comput. Geotech. 74 (Apr.): 188–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2016.01.011.
Zhang, X. Y., L. X. Zhang, and Z. LI. 2018. “Reliability analysis of soil slope based on upper bound method of limit analysis.” Rock Mech. Rock Eng. 5 (39): 1840–1850. https://doi.org/10.16285/j.rsm.2017.1894.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to International Journal of Geomechanics
International Journal of Geomechanics
Volume 23Issue 9September 2023

History

Received: Oct 16, 2022
Accepted: Mar 26, 2023
Published online: Jun 28, 2023
Published in print: Sep 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Nov 28, 2023

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Ph.D. Candidate, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China. Email: [email protected]
Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China (corresponding author). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5165-1933. Email: [email protected]
Xiaoyan Zhang [email protected]
Lecturer, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China. Email: [email protected]
Professor, Faculty of Engineering and Informatics, Univ. of Bradford, Bradford BD7 1DP, UK. Email: [email protected]
Yigong Zhao [email protected]
Postgraduate, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Kunming Univ. of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China. Email: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share