Research Article
Aug 1973
Monte Carlo Simulation of Oil Slick Movements
Publication: Journal of the Waterways, Harbors and Coastal Engineering Division
Volume 99, Issue 3
Abstract
A random walk analogy and a time series model are described to simulate, by the Monte Carlo method, the movement of an instantaneous oil slick under the influence of deterministic water currents and random wind effects. The technique is based on model sampling or repeated trials. Therefore, the slick motion is imitated by the movement of a large number of particles, each of which undergoes a sequence of deterministic steps due to a prescribed water current field and a different sequence of random steps due to a random wind field. This enables one to estimate the probability distributions of the position of the oil slick centroid and nearshore pollution after a spill occurs. An illustrative example based on some empirical formulas and actual field data from Delaware Bay is given. Of the two models on which the simulation is based, it is judged that the time series simulation model represents a more realistic and conservative approach.
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Published In
Journal of the Waterways, Harbors and Coastal Engineering Division
Volume 99 • Issue 3 • August 1973
Pages: 309 - 324
Copyright
© 1973 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Aug 1973
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
Affiliations
Mehmet A. Tayfun, AM.ASCE
Post-doctoral Research Assoc., Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Delaware, Newark, Del.
Hsiang Wang, M.ASCE
Assoc. Prof. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Delaware, Newark, Del.
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ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.