Research Article
Feb 1970
Replacement-Lock and Dam No. 26: Projecting Waterborne Commerce-Inland Navigation
Publication: Journal of the Waterways, Harbors and Coastal Engineering Division
Volume 96, Issue 1
Abstract
The determination of a lock's capacity necessitates projecting commodity tonnages expected to pass through that lock in the future. For long-range projections of waterborne commerce passing through a limited reach of the river, a market-oriented commodity group analysis is best. Given different objectives, a more appropriate procedure may be correlation analysis or an analysis based upon trend data. Whereas aggregate correlation analysis has many advantages for a large universe, for a small reach it has many shortcomings. Likewise, trend analysis may be appropriate for short-run estimates, but can be misleading for most projects over 5 yrs. Most important, however, is that for a limited reach, causation should be established. This can best be accomplished through a clear definition of the commodity group, the careful identification of areas of supply and demand, and the quantification of this demand (over a period of time) as it pertains to barge transportation.
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Information
Published In
Journal of the Waterways, Harbors and Coastal Engineering Division
Volume 96 • Issue 1 • February 1970
Pages: 9 - 14
Copyright
© 1970 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Feb 1970
Published online: Feb 12, 2021
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Authors
Affiliations
DuWayne A. Koch
Head, Economics Section, Planning Branch, St. Louis District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Louis, Mo.
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