Risk Identification, Prioritization, and Mapping for Early Construction Cost Contingency in Transportation Infrastructure Projects
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10, Issue 3
Abstract
State Departments of Transportation (DOTs) require reliable early construction cost estimates for project budgeting. Typically, project budgets are established early in the development process before finalizing a project’s scope of work. Due to the inherent incompleteness of scope definition and specifications, early estimates of construction costs are hardly accurate, necessitating the estimation and usage of a contingency. However, most DOTs use a predetermined approach to estimate construction cost contingencies without considering project-specific risks and uncertainties. Furthermore, few research studies have been focused on improving construction cost contingency estimation in the early phases. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by laying the initial foundation for a project-specific and risk-driven approach for DOTs. Significant risks affecting construction cost contingencies were identified, prioritized, and then mapped with common project types by applying a hybrid research methodology of reviewing and analyzing DOT manuals, risk checklists, and risk registers and conducting and analyzing questionnaire surveys with DOT experts. The subjectivity and vagueness of survey responses affecting risk prioritization were addressed using fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic approaches.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions.
Acknowledgments
This study was partially supported by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program 15-71: Contingency Factors to Account for Risk in Early Construction Cost Estimates for Transportation Infrastructure Projects. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the US agency.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10 • Issue 3 • September 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 13, 2024
Accepted: Apr 11, 2024
Published online: Jul 12, 2024
Published in print: Sep 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Dec 12, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Artificial intelligence (AI)
- Artificial intelligence and machine learning
- Business management
- Computer programming
- Computing in civil engineering
- Construction costs
- Construction engineering
- Construction industry
- Construction management
- Disaster risk management
- Financial management
- Fuzzy logic
- Geomatics
- Infrastructure construction
- Mapping
- Practice and Profession
- Project management
- Risk management
- Surveying methods
Authors
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