An Integrated Framework for Analyzing Risk Influence Factors of Inland Waterway Transport Based on Interpretive Structural Models and Bayesian Networks
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10, Issue 3
Abstract
Historical accident data provides valuable insights into the causes of maritime accidents. To investigate the effect of factors on maritime safety through accident analysis, this study collected 238 accidents that occurred in the mainstream of the Yangtze River from 2016 to 2021. The data features that reflect the frequency of risk influence factors (RIFs) are identified, and principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the feature dimension of the RIFs. Furthermore, an interpretive structure model is constructed to analyze the relevance and hierarchy of the RIFs. The parameters of the network model are learned using the data set of accident cases, and the conditional probability of each node is obtained, based on these, the Bayesian network model of RIFs can be constructed. The sensitivity analysis reveals that all types of accidents are the location of incident, ship type, ship age, hull condition, and channel environment. Four cases are used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. This research provides theoretical support for taking measures to prevent accidents and control risks.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the National Key Technologies Research and Development Program (2023YFB4302303), National Natural Science Foundation of China (51920105014; 52071247), and the innovation and entrepreneurship team import project of Shaoguan City (201208176230693).
Author contributions: Tao Guo: Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Writing–original draft. Lei Xie: Supervision, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Supervision, Writing–reviewing and editing. Jinfen Zhang: Supervision, Writing–reviewing and editing. Jianwei Zhao: Formal analysis, Software, Validation–original draft. Heyu Zhou: Investigation, Methodology, Writing–reviewing and editing.
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10 • Issue 3 • September 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 24, 2023
Accepted: Mar 19, 2024
Published online: Jun 11, 2024
Published in print: Sep 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Nov 11, 2024
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