Modeling Earthquake-Induced Landslide Risk for Mountain Railway Alignment Optimization
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10, Issue 2
Abstract
Construction investment and geological risk of a railway project are significantly influenced by the alignment design. Thus, for railways in earthquake-prone regions, the seismic risks should be addressed at the alignment decision-making stage. However, this is a challenging problem that should balance cost and risk appropriately. Especially in mountainous regions, besides direct ground shaking, earthquake-induced landslides greatly threaten railways’ construction and operation. Unfortunately, no existing studies in this field have accounted for that factor. In this paper, a novel potential earthquake-induced landslide risk model is proposed for mountain railway alignment optimization. In this model, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, critical acceleration computation, and landslide displacement estimation are first integrated. Together with the consideration of railway structures’ damage states, damage ratios, and restoration functions, the direct and indirect monetary losses caused by landslides to railways with specified alignments are evaluated. Then, the aforementioned analyses are incorporated into a previous cost-risk model and solved with a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Finally, the model’s effectiveness is tested in a complex railway example. It is found that the studied region is landslide prone, and railway structures, especially bridges, are vulnerable to landslides. Also, a biobjective analysis reveals the alignments can be more sensitive to risks than to costs. Lastly, according to the detailed engineering outputs, the computer-generated alignment is 11.8% less expensive and 27.2% safer than the best manually designed solution.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
Some data, models, or code generated or used during the study are proprietary or confidential in nature and may only be provided with restrictions. All design data for the case study presented here, such as the railway location, manually-design solution, and topographic and seismic information of the study area, are provided by the China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group. These data were provided to support this research but detailed information cannot be presented in this paper because the proprietary rights belong to that company. However, some alternative topography data can be downloaded from the Geospatial Data Cloud website (http://www.gscloud.cn), and the PGA data can be referred to the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China (China Earthquake Administration 2016). These data are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work is partially funded by the National Key R&D Program of China with Award No. 2021YFB2600403, the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) with Award No. 52078497, the Ministry of Education of China (MOE) Key Laboratory of High-Speed Railway Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University (2021 Open Fund), the Open Foundation of National Engineering Laboratory for High Speed Railway Construction with Award No. HSR202103, and the Frontier Cross Research Project of Central South University with Award No. 2023QYJC006. The first author (Taoran Song) deeply appreciates his great friend Hengchao “Henry” Xu’s warm help in assisting his settlement, research, and study at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver.
References
AREMA (American Railway Engineering and Maintenance-of-Way Association). 2023. Manual for railway engineering. Washington, DC: AREMA.
Bojadjieva, J., V. Sheshov, and C. Bonnard. 2018. “Hazard and risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides—Case study.” Landslides 15 (1): 161–171. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0905-9.
Caccavale, M., F. Matano, and M. Sacchi. 2017. “An integrated approach to earthquake-induced landslide hazard zoning based on probabilistic seismic scenario for Phlegrean Islands (Ischia, Procida and Vivara), Italy.” Geomorphology 295 (Feb): 235–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.07.010.
Chen, X. L., C. G. Liu, and M. M. Wang. 2018. “A method for quick assessment of earthquake-triggered landslide hazards: A case study of the 2014 Ludian, China earthquake.” Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ. 78 (4): 2449–2458. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-018-1313-7.
China Earthquake Administration. 2016. Seismic ground motion parameter zonation map of China. GB 18306-2015. Beijing: China Earthquake Administration.
China Ministry of Railways. 2017. Code for design of railway line. TB 10098-2017. Beijing: China Ministry of Railways.
Cruden, D. M., and D. J. Varnes. 1996. “Landslide types and processes.” In Landslides: Investigation and mitigation, edited by A. K. Turner and R. L. Shuster, 36–75. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board.
Davey, N., S. Dunstall, and S. Halgamuge. 2017. “Optimal road design through ecologically sensitive areas considering animal migration dynamics.” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 77 (Aug): 478–494. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2017.02.016.
de Smith, M. J. 2006. “Determination of gradient and curvature constrained optimal paths.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 21 (1): 24–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2005.00414.x.
Dreyfus, D., E. M. Rathje, and R. W. Jibson. 2013. “The influence of different simplified sliding-block models and input parameters on regional predictions of seismic landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake.” Eng. Geol. 163 (Jun): 41–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2013.05.015.
Easa, S. M., and A. Mehmood. 2008. “Optimizing design of highway horizontal alignments: New substantive safety approach.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 23 (7): 560–573. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2008.00560.x.
Erdik, M. 2017. “Earthquake risk assessment.” Bull. Earthquake Eng. 15 (12): 5055–5092. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0235-2.
FEMA. 2020. HAZUS-MH technical manual. Washington, DC: FEMA.
Gao, T., Z. Li, Y. Gao, P. Schonfeld, X. Feng, Q. Wang, and Q. He. 2021. “A deep reinforcement learning approach to mountain railway alignment optimization.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 37 (1): 73–92. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12694.
Gao, Y., T. Gao, Y. Wu, P. Wang, and Q. He. 2022. “Low-construction-emission cross-section optimization for mountainous highway alignment designs.” Transp. Res. Part D: Transp. Environ. 105 (Jun): 103249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103249.
Gorum, T., X. Fan, C. Westen, R. Q. Huang, X. Qiang, C. Tang, and G. Wang. 2011. “Distribution pattern of earthquake-induced landslides triggered by the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.” Geomorphology 133 (3–4): 152–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.12.030.
Hare, W., S. Hossain, Y. Lucet, and F. Rahman. 2014. “Models and strategies for efficiently determining an optimal vertical alignment of roads.” Comput. Oper. Res. 44 (Aug): 161–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2013.11.005.
Hirpa, D., W. Hare, Y. Lucet, Y. Pushak, and S. Tesfamariam. 2016. “A bi-objective optimization framework for three-dimensional road alignment design.” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 65 (Jun): 61–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2016.01.016.
Howard, B. E., Z. Bramnick, and J. F. B. Shaw. 1968. “Optimum curvature principle in highway routing.” J. Highway Div. 94 (1): 61–82. https://doi.org/10.1061/JHCEA2.0000266.
Jha, M. K., and P. Schonfeld. 2004. “A highway alignment optimization model using geographic information systems.” Transp. Res. Part A: Policy Pract. 38 (6): 455–481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2004.04.001.
Jibson, R. W. 2007. “Regression models for estimating coseismic landslide displacement.” Eng. Geol. 91 (2): 209–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.013.
Jong, J. C., M. K. Jha, and P. Schonfeld. 2000. “Preliminary highway design with genetic algorithms and geographic information systems.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 15 (4): 261–271. https://doi.org/10.1111/0885-9507.00190.
Jong, J. C., and P. Schonfeld. 2003. “An evolutionary model for simultaneously optimizing three-dimensional highway alignments.” Transp. Res. Part B: Methodol. 37 (2): 107–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-2615(01)00047-9.
Kang, M., M. Jha, and P. Schonfeld. 2012. “Applicability of highway alignment optimization models.” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 21 (1): 257–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2011.09.006.
Kang, M., P. Schonfeld, and N. Yang. 2009. “Prescreening and repairing in a genetic algorithm for highway alignment optimization.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 24 (2): 109–119. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2008.00574.x.
Kennedy, J., and R. Eberhart. 1995. “Particle swarm optimization.” In Proc., IEEE Int. Conf. on Neural Networks. New York: IEEE.
Kim, E., M. Jha, D. Lovell, and P. Schonfeld. 2004. “Intersections modeling for highway alignment optimization.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 19 (Feb): 119–129. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2004.00342.x.
Kim, M., P. Schonfeld, and E. Kim. 2013. “Comparison of vertical alignments for rail transit.” J. Transp. Eng. 139 (2): 230–238. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000476.
Lai, X., and P. Schonfeld. 2016. “Concurrent optimization of rail transit alignments and station locations.” Urban Rail Transit 2 (1): 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40864-016-0033-1.
Li, C., L. Ding, and B. Zhong. 2019. “Highway planning and design in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau of China: A cost-safety balance perspective.” Engineering 5 (2): 337–349. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2018.12.008.
Li, C., and L. Su. 2021. “Influence of critical acceleration model on assessments of potential earthquake-induced landslide hazards in Shimian County, Sichuan Province, China.” Landslides 18 (5): 1659–1674. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01578-1.
Li, W., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, J. Yang, H. Zhang, L. Wang, and J. Xiong. 2017. “Mountain railway alignment optimization with bidirectional distance transform and genetic algorithm.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 32 (8): 691–709. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12280.
Li, W., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, H. Zhang, and X. Zheng. 2016. “Methodology for optimizing constrained 3-dimensional railway alignments in mountainous terrain.” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 68 (Jun): 549–565. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2016.05.010.
Lipowski, A., and D. Lipowska. 2012. “Roulette-wheel selection via stochastic acceptance.” Physica A 391 (6): 2193–2196.
Maji, A., and M. K. Jha. 2009. “Multi-objective highway alignment optimization using a genetic algorithm.” J. Adv. Transp. 43 (4): 481–504. https://doi.org/10.1002/atr.5670430405.
Mansour, M. F., N. R. Morgenstern, and C. D. Martin. 2011. “Expected damage from displacement of slow-moving slides.” Landslides 8 (1): 117–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0227-7.
Marano, K. D., D. J. Wald, and T. I. Allen. 2010. “Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses.” Nat. Hazards 52 (2): 319–328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9372-5.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China. 2010. Code for seismic design of buildings. GB 50011-2010. Beijing: China Architecture and Building Press.
Monnet, D., W. Hare, and Y. Lucet. 2020. “Fast feasibility check of the multi-material vertical alignment problem in road design.” Comput. Optim. Appl. 75 (2): 515–536. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10589-019-00160-3.
Newmark, N. M. 1965. “Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments.” Géotechnique 15 (2): 139–160. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1965.15.2.139.
Pitilakis, K., H. Crowley, and A. Kaynia. 2014. SYNER-G: Typology definition and fragility functions for physical elements at seismic risk (GGEE 27). Berlin: Springer.
Pu, H., T. Song, P. Schonfeld, W. Li, H. Zhang, J. Hu, X. Peng, and J. Wang. 2019a. “Mountain railway alignment optimization using stepwise & hybrid particle swarm optimization incorporating genetic operators.” Appl. Soft Comput. 78 (May): 41–57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2019.01.051.
Pu, H., T. Song, P. Schonfeld, W. Li, H. Zhang, J. Wang, J. Hu, and X. Peng. 2019b. “A three-dimensional distance transform for optimizing constrained mountain railway alignments.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 34 (11): 972–990. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12475.
Pu, H., J. Xie, P. Schonfeld, T. Song, W. Li, J. Wang, and J. Hu. 2021. “Railway alignment optimization in mountainous regions considering spatial geological hazards: A sustainable safety perspective.” Sustainability 13 (4): 1661. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041661.
Pushak, Y., W. Hare, and Y. Lucet. 2016. “Multiple-path selection for new highway alignments using discrete algorithms.” Eur. J. Oper. Res. 248 (2): 415–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.039.
Rodríguez-Peces, M. J., J. L. Pérez García, J. García-Mayordomo, J. M. Azañòn, J. M. In-sua-Arévalo, and J. Delgado-García. 2011. “Applicability of Newmark method at regional, subregional and site scales: Seismically induced Bullas and La Paca rock-slidecases (Murcia, SE Spain).” Nat. Hazards 59 (2): 1109–1124. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9820-x.
Saade, A., G. Abou-Jaoude, and J. Wartman. 2016. “Regional-scale co-seismic landslide assessment using limit equilibrium analysis.” Eng. Geol. 204 (Jan): 53–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2016.02.004.
Shafahi, Y., and M. Bagherian. 2013. “A customized particle swarm method to solve highway alignment optimization problem.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 28 (1): 52–67. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2012.00769.x.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, and J. Hu. 2022a. “Railway alignment optimization under uncertainty with a minimax robust method.” IEEE Intell. Transp. Syst. Mag. 15 (1): 333–346. https://doi.org/10.1109/MITS.2022.3146143.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, J. Hu, and J. Liu. 2022b. “Robust optimization method for mountain railway alignments considering preference uncertainty for costs and seismic risks.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 8 (1): 04021077. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001207.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, W. Li, H. Zhang, Y. Ren, J. Wang, J. Hu, and X. Peng. 2020a. “Parallel three-dimensional distance transform for railway alignment optimization using OpenMP.” J. Transp. Eng. Part A: Syst. 146 (5): 04020029. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.0000344.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, Z. Liang, M. Zhang, J. Hu, Y. Zhou, and Z. Xu. 2022c. “Mountain railway alignment optimization integrating layouts of large-scale auxiliary construction projects.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 38 (4): 433–453. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12839.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, H. Zhang, W. Li, and J. Hu. 2021a. “Simultaneous optimization of 3-D alignments and station locations for dedicated high-speed railways.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 37 (4): 405–426. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12739.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, H. Zhang, W. Li, J. Hu, and J. Wang. 2020b. “Mountain railway alignment optimization considering geological impacts: A cost-hazard bi-objective model.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 35 (12): 1365–1386. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12571.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, H. Zhang, W. Li, J. Hu, and J. Wang. 2021b. “Bi-objective mountain railway alignment optimization incorporating seismic risk assessment.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 36 (2): 143–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12607.
Song, T., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, H. Zhang, W. Li, X. Peng, J. Hu, and W. Liu. 2021c. “GIS-based multi-criteria railway design with spatial environmental considerations.” Appl. Geogr. 131 (Jun): 102449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2021.102449.
Sushma, M. B., and A. Maji. 2020. “A modified motion planning algorithm for horizontal highway alignment development.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 35 (8): 818–831. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12534.
Vázquez-Méndez, M. E., G. Casal, A. Castro, and D. Santamarina. 2021. “An algorithm for random generation of admissible horizontal alignments for optimum layout design.” Comput.-Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. 36 (Feb): 1056–1072. https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12682.
Wang, T., S. R. Wu, J. S. Shi, P. Xin, and L. Z. Wu. 2018. “Assessment of the effects of historical strong earthquakes on large-scale landslide groupings in the Wei River midstream.” Eng. Geol. 235 (May): 11–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.01.020.
Yang, N., M. W. Kang, P. Schonfeld, and M. K. Jha. 2014. “Multi-objective highway alignment optimization incorporating preference information.” Transp. Res. Part C: Emerging Technol. 40 (Sep): 36–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2013.12.010.
Yang, T. Y., J. C. Atkinson, and L. Tobber. 2015. “Detailed seismic performance assessment of high-value-contents laboratory facility.” Earthquake Spectra 31 (4): 2117–2135. https://doi.org/10.1193/092313EQS259M.
Yang, T. Y., J. P. Moehle, B. Stojadinovic, and A. Der Kiureghian. 2009. “Seismic performance evaluation of facilities: Methodology and implementation.” J. Struct. Eng. 135 (10): 1146–1154. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2009)135:10(1146).
Yang, T. Y., B. Stojadinovic, and J. P. Moehle. 2012. “Demonstration of a practical method for seismic performance assessment of structural systems.” Earthquake Spectra 28 (2): 811–829. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.4000020.
Zhang, H., H. Pu, P. Schonfeld, T. Song, W. Li, J. Wang, X. Peng, and J. Hu. 2020. “Multi-objective railway alignment optimization considering costs and environmental impacts.” Appl. Soft Comput. 89 (Sep): 106105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106105.
Zhang, L., N. S. Carpenter, Z. Wang, Y. Lyu, and S. Li. 2018. “Scenario based seismic hazard analysis for the Xianshuihe fault zone, Southwest China.” Pure Appl. Geophys. 175 (2): 707–720. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1686-8.
Zhang, S., L. M. Zhang, and T. Glade. 2014. “Characteristics of earthquake- and rain-induced landslides near the epicenter of Wenchuan earthquake.” Eng. Geol. 175 (11): 58–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.03.012.
Zhang, Y., B. M. Ayyub, W. Gong, and H. Tang. 2023. “Risk assessment of roadway networks exposed to landslides in mountainous regions—A case study in Fengjie County, China.” Landslides 20 (7): 1419–1431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02045-3.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 10 • Issue 2 • June 2024
Copyright
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 10, 2023
Accepted: Oct 3, 2023
Published online: Jan 23, 2024
Published in print: Jun 1, 2024
Discussion open until: Jun 23, 2024
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.