Efficient System Reliability Analysis for Layered Soil Slopes with Multiple Failure Modes Using Sequential Compounding Method
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 2
Abstract
Evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes is a challenging issue because multiple failure modes may be included along the slip surfaces, which makes the overall failure probability greater than any individual slip surface. In this paper, an efficient system reliability analysis concerning the layered soil slopes is conducted based on the sequential compounding method (SCM) that has the ability to compound multiple failure events into an equivalent event sequentially. First, the first order reliability method (FORM) is employed to quantify initial reliability indices and correlation coefficients among these failure modes. Subsequently, the SCM is used to calculate the equivalent reliability indices and correlation coefficients until the multiple failure events are reduced to a compound event, and then the system reliability of the slope is obtained accordingly. The application of the approach to probabilistic evaluation of layered slopes is illustrated by two typical examples, and the correctness is verified by a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The results show that the SCM can deliver accurate system failure probability and greatly improve the computational efficiency compared with the MCS, which is an advantageous and promising strategy in evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes.
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Data Availability Statement
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41977244 and 42007267). The first author is supported by China Scholarship Council (CSC) as a visiting scholar at the Leibniz University Hannover, under Grant No. 202006410089. All support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9 • Issue 2 • June 2023
Copyright
© 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 21, 2022
Accepted: Feb 6, 2023
Published online: Mar 30, 2023
Published in print: Jun 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Aug 30, 2023
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