Bayesian Framework for Assessing Effectiveness of Geotechnical Site Investigation Programs
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 1
Abstract
Site investigation data can play an important role in not only site characterization but also the improvement of engineering design. It is tempting to predict the potential benefit of a site investigation before it is actually conducted. In this study, a Bayesian framework to assess the effectiveness of a site investigation program is proposed. The expected reduced variance (ERV) is employed to measure the uncertainty reduction owing to site investigation data. The uncertain outcomes of all possible site investigation data are considered through their probabilistic distributions. Then a framework to calculate the ERV is established. Monte Carlo simulation is adopted and the statistical uncertainty can be analyzed through the bootstrap method. Two examples of a shallow foundation on sand and an undrained slope are illustrated in this paper. Based on the examples studied, the optimal sampling layout is also discussed. The proposed method is promising to be applied in optimization of the sampling layout for various geotechnical practices.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Data Availability Statement
All data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2021YFB2600500), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 42072302 and 41672276), Shuguang Program from Shanghai Education Development Foundation and Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (19SG19), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
References
Ang, A. H., and W. H. Tang. 1984. Probability concepts in engineering planning and design, decision, risk, and reliability. New York: Wiley.
Babu, G. L. S., A. Srivastava, and D. S. Murthy. 2006. “Reliability analysis of the bearing capacity of a shallow foundation resting on cohesive soil.” Can. Geotech. J. 43 (2): 217–223. https://doi.org/10.1139/t05-099.
Blitzstein, J. K., and J. Hwang. 2019. Introduction to probability. 2nd ed. New York: Chapman and Hall.
Cami, B. S., K. Javankhoshdel, K. Phoon, and J. Ching. 2020. “Scale of fluctuation for spatially varying soils: Estimation methods and values.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 6 (4): 03120002. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001083.
Celorrio, L., and E. Patelli. 2021. “Reliability-based design optimization under mixed aleatory/epistemic uncertainties: Theory and applications.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 7 (3): 04021026. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001147.
Cherubini, C. 2000. “Reliability evaluation of shallow foundation bearing capacity on c′ϕ′soils.” Can. Geotech. J. 37 (1): 264–269. https://doi.org/10.1139/t99-096.
Ching, J., and K. K. Phoon. 2020. “Measuring similarity between site-specific data and records from other sites.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 6 (2): 04020011. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001046.
Ching, J., K. K. Phoon, and Y. G. Hu. 2009. “Efficient evaluation of reliability for slopes with circular slip surfaces using importance sampling.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 135 (6): 768–777. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000035.
Cho, S. E. 2010. “Probabilistic assessment of slope stability that considers the spatial variability of soil properties.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 136 (7): 975–984. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000309.
Deb, K., and S. Gupta. 2011. “Understanding knee points in bicriteria problems and their implications as preferred solution principles.” Eng. Optim. 43 (11): 1175–1204. https://doi.org/10.1080/0305215X.2010.548863.
DiCiccio, T. J., and B. Efron. 1996. “Bootstrap confidence intervals.” Stat. Sci. 11 (3): 189–228. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1032280214.
Duan, X. R., J. Zhang, H. W. Huang, P. Zeng, and L. L. Zhang. 2021. “System reliability analysis of soil slopes through constrained optimization.” Landslides 18 (2): 655–666. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01447-x.
Efron, B., and R. J. Tibshirani. 1993. An introduction to the bootstrap. New York: Chapman and Hall.
Fenton, G. A., and D. V. Griffiths. 2003. “Bearing-capacity prediction of spatially random c soils.” Can. Geotech. J. 40 (1): 54–65. https://doi.org/10.1139/t02-086.
Gardner, B. J., D. D. Gransberg, and J. A. Rueda. 2017. “Stochastic conceptual cost estimating of highway projects to communicate uncertainty using bootstrap sampling.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 3 (3): 05016002. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000895.
Ge, Q., H. Sun, Z. Liu, B. Yang, S. Lacasse, and F. Nadim. 2021. “A novel approach for displacement interval forecasting of landslides with step-like displacement pattern.” Georisk 2021 (Feb): 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2021.1892769.
Goldsworthy, J. S., M. B. Jaksa, G. A. Fenton, W. S. Kaggwa, V. Griffiths, and H. G. Poulos. 2007. “Effect of sample location on the reliability based design of pad foundations.” Georisk 1 (3): 155–166. https://doi.org/10.1080/17499510701697377.
Gong, W., Z. Luo, C. H. Juang, H. Huang, J. Zhang, and L. Wang. 2014. “Optimization of site exploration program for improved prediction of tunneling-induced ground settlement in clays.” Comput. Geotech. 56 (Oct): 69–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2013.10.008.
Goodfellow, I., Y. Bengio, A. Courville. 2016. Deep learning. Cambridge, UK: MIT Press.
Griffiths, D. V., and G. A. Fenton. 2004. “Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 130 (5): 507–518. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1090-0241(2004)130:5(507).
Gu, X., F. Chen, W. Zhang, Q. Wang, and H. Liu. 2021. “Numerical investigation of pile responses induced by adjacent tunnel excavation in spatially variable clays.” Underground Space 2021 (Nov): 8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.undsp.2021.09.003.
Gut, A. 2005. Probability: A graduate course. New York: Springer.
Hu, J. Z., J. Zhang, H. W. Huang, and J. G. Zheng. 2021. “Value of information analysis of site investigation program for slope design.” Comput. Geotech. 131 (Mar): 103938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2020.103938.
Jiang, S. H., I. Papaioannou, and D. Straub. 2020. “Optimization of site-exploration programs for slope-reliability assessment.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 6 (1): 04020004. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001042.
Juang, C. H., J. Zhang, M. Shen, and J. Hu. 2019. “Probabilistic methods for unified treatment of geotechnical and geological uncertainties in a geotechnical analysis.” Eng. Geol. 249 (Jan): 148–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.12.010.
Li, D. Q., S. H. Jiang, Z. J. Cao, W. Zhou, C. B. Zhou, and L. M. Zhang. 2015. “A multiple response-surface method for slope reliability analysis considering spatial variability of soil properties.” Eng. Geol. 187 (Mar): 60–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.12.003.
Li, D. Q., X. H. Qi, Z. J. Cao, X. S. Tang, K. K. Phoon, and C. B. Zhou. 2016. “Evaluating slope stability uncertainty using coupled Markov chain.” Comput. Geotech. 73 (Mar): 72–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2015.11.021.
Li, S., and M. Pozzi. 2019. “What makes long-term monitoring convenient? A parametric analysis of value of information in infrastructure maintenance.” Struct. Control Health 26 (5): e2329. https://doi.org/10.1002/stc.2329.
Lu, M., J. Zhang, L. Zhang, and L. Zhang. 2020. “Assessing the annual risk of vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide: A case study on Kennedy Road in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.” Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. 20 (6): 1833–1846. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020.
Papaioannou, I., and D. Straub. 2017. “Learning soil parameters and updating geotechnical reliability estimates under spatial variability—Theory and application to shallow foundations.” Georisk 11 (1): 116–128. https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2016.1250280.
Pfeiffer, P. E. 2013. Concepts of probability theory. 2nd ed. New York: Dover Publications.
Phoon, K. K., and F. H. Kulhawy. 1999. “Characterization of geotechnical variability.” Can. Geotech. J. 36 (4): 612–624. https://doi.org/10.1139/t99-038.
Straub, D. 2014. “Value of information analysis with structural reliability methods.” Struct. Saf. 49 (Jul): 75–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.08.006.
Terbrugge, P. J., J. Wesseloo, J. Venter, and O. K. H. Steffen. 2006. “A risk consequence approach to open pit slope design.” J. South Afr. Inst. Min. Metall. 106 (7): 503–511.
Wehrens, R., H. Putter, and L. M. Buydens. 2000. “The bootstrap: A tutorial.” Chemometr. Intell. Lab. Syst. 54 (1): 35–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7439(00)00102-7.
Yang, R., J. Huang, and D. V. Griffiths. 2021. “Optimal geotechnical site investigations for slope reliability assessment considering measurement errors.” Eng. Geol. 297 (Feb): 106497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106497.
Yang, R., J. Huang, D. V. Griffiths, J. Meng, and G. A. Fenton. 2019. “Optimal geotechnical site investigations for slope design.” Comput. Geotech. 114 (Oct): 103111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2019.103111.
Yoshida, I., and T. Shuku. 2021. “Soil stratification and spatial variability estimated using sparse modeling and gaussian random field theory.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 7 (3): 04021023. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001143.
Yoshida, I., Y. Tasaki, Y. Otake, and S. Wu. 2018. “Optimal sampling placement in a Gaussian random field based on value of information.” J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst. Part A: Civ. Eng. 4 (3): 04018018. https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000970.
Zhang, J., H. W. Huang, and K. K. Phoon. 2013. “Application of the Kriging-based response surface method to the system reliability of soil slopes.” J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 139 (4): 651–655. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000801.
Zhang, W. H., D. G. Lu, J. Qin, S. Thöns, and M. H. Faber. 2021. “Value of information analysis in civil and infrastructure engineering: A review.” J. Infrastruct. Preserv. Resilience 2 (1): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43065-021-00027-0.
Zhao, J., X. Duan, L. Ma, J. Zhang, and H. Huang. 2021. “Importance sampling for system reliability analysis of soil slopes based on shear strength reduction.” Georisk 15 (4): 287–298. https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2020.1780618.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 9 • Issue 1 • March 2023
Copyright
© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 1, 2022
Accepted: Aug 27, 2022
Published online: Oct 20, 2022
Published in print: Mar 1, 2023
Discussion open until: Mar 20, 2023
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Bayesian analysis
- Computing in civil engineering
- Continuum mechanics
- Distribution functions
- Dynamics (solid mechanics)
- Engineering fundamentals
- Engineering mechanics
- Foundations
- Geotechnical engineering
- Geotechnical investigation
- Mathematical functions
- Mathematics
- Motion (dynamics)
- Probability
- Probability distribution
- Shallow foundations
- Site investigation
- Solid mechanics
- Statistical analysis (by type)
- Uncertainty principles
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
- Kok-Kwang Phoon, Takayuki Shuku, Jianye Ching, Ikumasa Yoshida, Benchmarking Data-Driven Site Characterization, ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1058, 9, 2, (2023).
- Liang Zhang, Lei Wang, Reliability analysis of pile-founded T-walls using the random variable method and random field method, Computers and Geotechnics, 10.1016/j.compgeo.2023.105439, 159, (105439), (2023).
- Thanh Son Nguyen, Weeradetch Tanapalungkorn, Suraparb Keawsawasvong, Van Qui Lai, Suched Likitlersuang, Probabilistic Analysis of Passive Trapdoor in c-ϕ Soil Considering Multivariate Cross-Correlated Random Fields, Geotechnical and Geological Engineering, 10.1007/s10706-023-02649-5, 42, 3, (1849-1869), (2023).