Preposterior Analysis Considering Uncertainties and Dependencies of Information Relevant to Structural Performance
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8, Issue 1
Abstract
A modified general framework of preposterior analysis is proposed here, which takes the uncertainties and dependencies associated with the information relevant to structural performance into account, to provide a sound basis for decision making. The information that we collect to update our knowledge of structural performance forms the core of preposterior analysis. It normally is not perfect and dependent on each other. Special emphasis is placed on the identification of the potential sources of uncertainties and dependencies of the information samples. The proposed framework is formulated with the consistent representation of such uncertainties and dependencies. The framework’s application is illustrated through an example of the update of the knowledge about the condition state of gas turbine engine components. The potential uncertainties and dependencies associated with future samples of the information relevant to the flaws of the engine components are presented, and further, their effects on the update of knowledge of the components’ state are investigated.
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Data Availability Statement
The codes that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The data used during the study were obtained from the report published by the Department of Defense (2009): Nondestructive Evaluation System Reliability Assessment (Department of Defense, Washington, DC).
Acknowledgments
The author is grateful to Professor Michael H. Faber and Wei-Heng Zhang for the discussions on preposterior analysis.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 8 • Issue 1 • March 2022
Copyright
© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 3, 2021
Accepted: Oct 21, 2021
Published online: Dec 14, 2021
Published in print: Mar 1, 2022
Discussion open until: May 14, 2022
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