Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Buried Water Distribution Network: Combined Finite-Element and Probabilistic Approach
Publication: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 7, Issue 4
Abstract
Corrosion deterioration is the predominant factor for a large number of cast iron (CI) water main breaks. The reliability of CI pipelines decreases overtime as corrosion growth on pipe walls significantly reduces the strength of pipeline materials. To predict the reliability of water pipelines accurately, this study used a finite-element analysis (FEA) approach to determine the maximum pipeline stress at various stages of the pipeline’s life. A series of FEAs was performed to consider uncertainties in parameters associated with stress analysis. The circumferential stress was found to be the most critical stress for pipelines. Time-variant circumferential stress was obtained by accounting for the time-dependent corrosion pit growth on the pipeline wall. The time-variant failure probability of pipelines was determined by comparing the circumferential stress and the tensile failure strength of the pipeline at the burst limit state. The FEA model developed in this study was validated with the results obtained from previous studies. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to generate the fragility curves in a probabilistic manner. This study also compared the fragility curves obtained utilizing FEA and conventional equations (elastic ring theory and the Spangler formula). The results showed that analytical equations are too conservative and provide a higher failure probability of pipeline. A sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the relative importance of parameters contributing to the pipeline’s performance. Additionally, the reliability of the water distribution network (WDN) was calculated based on the minimum cut set (MCS) and graph decomposition methods. The results showed that the two methods provide similar outcomes, however, MCS provides a greater safety margin. The proposed approach was illustrated for an example WDN.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published paper.
Acknowledgments
The research described in this paper was supported in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes (CRISP) under Grant No. NSF-1638320. This support is gratefully acknowledged. However, the writers take sole responsibility for the views expressed in this paper, which may not represent the position of the NSF or their respective institutions.
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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
Volume 7 • Issue 4 • December 2021
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 17, 2020
Accepted: May 21, 2021
Published online: Sep 7, 2021
Published in print: Dec 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Feb 7, 2022
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