Research Article
Nov 1977
Reliability of Earth Slopes
Publication: Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division
Volume 103, Issue 11
Abstract
A probabilistic approach to three-dimensional limit equilibrium slope stability is presented. Failure events involving long or very short failure zones are shown to be highly improbable. The existence of a fairly distinct most probable failure length is revealed and a method to determine it is proposed. It is further found that the mean margin of safety is twice as large as that predicted by plane strain analysis. The paper also calculates the risk that a failure will occur anywhere along an embankment of given total length, and identifies as the dominant contribution to the risk a term that is linear with embankment length. This result has major implications with respect to the safe design of long linear geotechnical facilities such as dams, levees, and highways. The proposed analysis accounts for other sources of uncertainty in slope stability calculations. It is an aid in design and exploration in the pursuit of the benefits of risk reduction.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering Division
Volume 103 • Issue 11 • November 1977
Pages: 1247 - 1265
Copyright
© 1977 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published in print: Nov 1977
Published online: Feb 11, 2021
Permissions
Request permissions for this article.
Authors
Affiliations
Erik H. Vanmarcke, M.ASCE
Assoc. Prof. of Civ. Engrg.; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.
Cited by
View Options
Get Access
Access content
Please select your options to get access
Log in/Register
Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members:
Please log in to see member pricing
Purchase
Save for later Item saved, go to cart Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Get Access
Access content
Please select your options to get access
Log in/Register
Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members:
Please log in to see member pricing
Purchase
Save for later Item saved, go to cart Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.