Probabilistic One-Dimensional Consolidation

The probabilistic analysis of one-dimensional consolidation requires as input the multivariate probability density function relating hydraulic conductivity, compressibility, and porosity. A Monte Carlo approach can be used to obtain solutions to hypothetical consolidation problems in which the soil properties are generated stochastically. Results show that the standard deviations associated with the input soil properties in heterogeneous soils can lead to large uncertainties in predicted hydraulic head values and consolidation rates. Uncertainties are increased by increasing soil heterogeneity and decreased by the presence of spatial trends. It appears that there is no simply way to define an equivalent homogeneous soil with single-valued average soil properties in heterogeneous soil systems. The practice, when utilized with the classical analytical solutions, may yield results significantly different from the most probable result for the actual stochastically-heterogeneous system.