Monte Carlo Simulation

To address soil parameter uncertainty and variability, GeoGridBridge3 (GGB3) includes a probabilistic analysis capability that utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The MCS is used to model the probability of an outcome based on the uncertainty of any number of variables. Another advantage of an MCS is that it enables the direct analysis of parameter distributions. Because soil parameters are subject to high levels of uncertainty and variability, an MCS is a common tool for reliability analyses in geotechnical engineering. Because of the complex nature of the LDC methodology, the MCS approach to evaluating the probability of an undesired condition is illustrated using the example of the short-term stability of a vertical cut in saturated clay in lieu of a CSE design. An important note is that the smallest probability of failure observable by an MCS depends on the number of iterations performed.