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May 16, 2024

An Improved Conceptual Bayesian Model for Dam Break Risk Assessment

Authors: Ghanatian Reza [email protected] and Mauricio Dziedzic [email protected]Author Affiliations
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784485477.089
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ABSTRACT

This paper presents an improved Bayesian model for evaluating the likelihood and consequences of dam failure. It is based on a comprehensive state-of-the-art review of risk assessment associated with dam breaks, with a particular emphasis on the application of Bayesian models. The study delves into the most recent developments in the field, investigating the utilization of Bayesian models, while focusing on two distinct dam types: tailings dams and water dams. Through an extensive survey of over 100 recent articles, the review systematically examines the parameters considered and the effectiveness of Bayesian models in the context of dam break risk assessment. The paper seeks to provide insights into the advantages and limitations of Bayesian approaches, shedding light on their practical utility in enhancing our understanding of dam failure risks. Furthermore, the study proposes a new Bayesian model applicable to tailings dams and water dams. The study also identifies gaps in the current body of knowledge and delineates potential avenues for future research. By critically assessing the efficiency of Bayesian models, this work offers valuable guidance to researchers, engineers, and stakeholders involved in dam safety, disaster preparedness, and risk mitigation. The ultimate goal is to advance our ability to safeguard lives and critical infrastructure in the face of potential dam failures, contributing to a more resilient and secure future.

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Go to World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
Pages: 1002 - 1018

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Published online: May 16, 2024

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ASCE Technical Topics:

  1. Analysis (by type)
  2. Bayesian analysis
  3. Dam failures
  4. Dam safety
  5. Dams
  6. Disaster risk management
  7. Disasters and hazards
  8. Engineering fundamentals
  9. Environmental engineering
  10. Failure analysis
  11. Failures (by type)
  12. Field tests
  13. Geotechnical engineering
  14. Hydraulic engineering
  15. Hydraulic structures
  16. Man-made disasters
  17. Mine wastes
  18. Pollutants
  19. Risk management
  20. Statistical analysis (by type)
  21. Structural engineering
  22. Structures (by type)
  23. Tests (by type)
  24. Wastes
  25. Water and water resources

Authors

Affiliations

Ghanatian Reza [email protected]
1Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, Univ. of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC. Email: [email protected]
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Mauricio Dziedzic [email protected]
2Professor, School of Engineering, Univ. of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC. Email: [email protected]
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