Using Conceptual Hydrological Models for Runoff Simulation and Attribution Analysis in the Source Area of the Yellow River, China
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
The Yellow River Basin (YRB) suffers from water shortage, and the contradiction between human and water is prominent. The source area of the Yellow River (YRSA) flows through the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which is extremely sensitive to climate change and human activities. The annual runoff at the Tangnaihai station, the outlet section of the YRSA, accounts for around 1/3 of the total runoff in the YRB, and therefore the YRSA is an important water conservation area of the YRB. It is of great significance to carry out hydrological simulation and quantify the historical pattern and future tendency of runoff changes in the YRSA for guiding the efficient utilization of water resources and the high-quality development of the YRB. To this end, this paper constructs a research dataset from 1961 to 2017. Several experiments are conducted using the single model and combined model of IHACRES-CMD and GR4JSG, taking into account both the rainfall-runoff and snow/ice-runoff patterns. In addition, different scenarios are compared to reveal the impacts of climate change and human activities on historical runoff changes. Results show that at the Tangnaihai station, compared with the single model of IHACRES-CMD or GR4JSG, the combined model (with around 5,000 m elevation for model selection) has better simulation accuracy (calibration period: NSE = 0.80; validation period: NSE = 0.84), which is more suitable for exploring runoff changes in the YRSA. The contribution rate of climate change and human activities to the runoff changes at the Tangnaihai station is 26.7% and 73.3% for the multi-year average, 32.5% and 67.5% for the flood season, and 8.6% and 91.4% for the non-flood season, respectively.
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Information
Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
Pages: 233 - 245
History
Published online: May 16, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Climate change
- Climates
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Human and behavioral factors
- Hydrologic engineering
- Hydrologic models
- Hydrology
- Model accuracy
- Models (by type)
- Practice and Profession
- Runoff
- Simulation models
- Water and water resources
- Water conservation
- Water management
- Water policy
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