Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Projections of Erosion and Sediment Production in the Jequetepeque River Basin in the Peruvian Andes
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
Peru is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. The projected increase in erosion and sediment production in the Andean region is of particular concern. This study examines the impact of climate change scenarios in the upstream area of the Gallito Ciego reservoir, and it investigates whether the implementation of green policies can mitigate the expected trends compared to the no-action scenario. Using the SWAT model, historical conditions (1981−2010) in the study area were analyzed. The results show an average annual flow of 30 m3/s and a sediment concentration of 1.0 g/L at the calibration station. Erosion and sediment production rates were estimated at 16.1 and 12.6 tons/ha/year, respectively, while the observed sedimentation rate was 3.72 hm3/year (1988−2017). Climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and land use scenarios [three green measures scenarios (GMSs) and one trend scenario] were simulated for the period 2021−2080. The projection of the average annual flow remains unaltered by variations in land use, with an average increase of 43%. However, other variables show contrasting trends. The trend scenario predicts an average increase of 69% in annual sediment concentration, while the GMSs show an average increase of 41%. Erosion and sediment yield rates project average increases of 137% and 122% in the trend scenario compared to 99% and 93% in the GMSs. These findings underscore the urgent need for measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change in the Andean region.
Get full access to this chapter
View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.
REFERENCES
Annandale, G. W., Morris, G. L., and Karki, P. (2016). Extending the Life of Reservoirs: Sustainable Sediment Management for Dams and Run-of-River Hydropower. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:132349676.
Aybar, C., Fernández, C., Huerta, A., Lavado, W., Vega, F., and Felipe-Obando, O. (2020). Construction of a high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset for Peru from 1981 to the present day. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(5), 770–785. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1649411.
Bonnesoeur, V., Locatelli, B., Guariguata, M. R., Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F., Vanacker, V., Mao, Z., Stokes, A., and Mathez-Stiefel, S. L. (2019). Impacts of forests and forestation on hydrological services in the Andes: A systematic review. In Forest Ecology and Management (Vol. 433, pp. 569–584). Elsevier B.V. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.11.033.
Borrelli, P., Robinson, D. A., Panagos, D. P., Lugato, E., Yang, J. E., Alewell, C., Wuepper, D., Montanarella, L., and Ballabio, C. (2020). Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070). Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(36), 21994–22001. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2001403117/-/DCSupplemental.
Earle, S. (2015). Physical Geology (B. C. Victoria, Ed.). https://opentextbc.ca/.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). (2015). Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils Status of the World’s Soil Resources. http://www.fao.org/3/i5199e/i5199e.pdf.
Girón Echeverry, E. (2003). Andes basin profile: Jequetepeque river basin.
Gudmundsson, L. (2016). Statistical Transformations for Post-Processing Climate Model Output. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3383.
Ingol-Blanco, E., and McKinney, D. C. (2013). Development of a Hydrological Model for the Rio Conchos Basin. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 18(3), 340–351. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)he.1943-5584.0000607.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). (2021). Climate Change 2021 Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policymakers. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/.
Lu, C. M., and Chiang, L. C. (2019). Assessment of sediment transport functions with the modified SWAT-Twn model for a Taiwanese small mountainous watershed. Water (Switzerland), 11(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091749.
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., and Veith, T. L. (2007). Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, 50(3), 885–900. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153.
Peña Laureano, F., Carpio Fernández, J., and Vargas Rodríguez, V. (2015). Hidrogeología de la cuenca de los ríos Jequetepeque (13774) y Chamán (137752). Regiones Cajamarca, La Libertad y Lambayeque. www.ingemmet.gob.pe.
PEJEZA (Proyecto Especial Jequetepeque-Zaña). (2017). Proceso de sedimentación del embalse de Gallito Ciego y plan de acción para la seguridad y evacuación de sedimentos. http://www.pejeza.gob.pe/pdf/SEDIMENTACION_EMBALSE_GC.pdf.
Wuepper, D., Borrelli, P., and Finger, R. (2020). Countries and the global rate of soil erosion. Nature Sustainability, 3(1), 51–55. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0438-4.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
Pages: 134 - 142
History
Published online: May 16, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Business management
- Climate change
- Climates
- Construction engineering
- Construction management
- Environmental engineering
- Erosion
- Geology
- Geotechnical engineering
- Infrastructure
- Land use
- Mitigation and remediation
- Practice and Profession
- Project management
- River bank stabilization
- River engineering
- Rivers and streams
- Sediment
- Urban and regional development
- Urban areas
- Water and water resources
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.