Analysis of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change in a Watershed with High Urbanization Potential Using the CA-Markov Model
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
ABSTRACT
Land use land cover (LULC) change is a crucial factor in understanding the evolving dynamics of urban and natural landscapes, especially in rapidly growing urban areas like Charlotte, North Carolina. This study employs the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling approach to forecast LULC change in a watershed in Charlotte over multiple time periods. The primary objective of this research is to utilize the MRLC land use data from 2001 and 2013 to predict land cover conditions in 2021, with a focus on validating these predictions against actual MRLC data from that year. This validation step ensures the accuracy and reliability of the CA-Markov model and is done by accessing agreement components and disagreement components. Subsequently, the same model will be employed to simulate LULC changes for the years 2050 and 2080. The findings indicate substantial growth of urbanization in the watershed at a rate of 14% to 24% by 2050 and 38% by 2080. This rapid expansion is associated with a decline in agricultural land and forest area, potentially leading to significant hydrological impacts within the watershed. Moreover, the assessment of CN values across 19 sub-catchments revealed a general increase in these values, with a few exceptions. This study serves as a crucial step toward comprehending the evolving dynamics within the Charlotte watershed. By accurately predicting land cover transitions and CN values, we can delve deeper into the analysis of hydrological alterations that may arise because of these LULC changes within the watershed.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2024
Pages: 16 - 28
History
Published online: May 16, 2024
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Engineering fundamentals
- Hydrologic engineering
- Hydrology
- Infrastructure
- Land use
- Methodology (by type)
- Model accuracy
- Models (by type)
- Municipal water
- Research methods (by type)
- River engineering
- River systems
- Urban and regional development
- Urban areas
- Validation
- Water (by type)
- Water and water resources
- Water management
- Watersheds
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