Conceptual Design of Quantitative Risk Algorithms for a Geohazard and Geo-Asset Management System for Roadway Networks in Permafrost Regions

Within the Northwest Territories, Canada, permafrost is ubiquitous with communities and industrial development requiring transportation infrastructure (e.g., roadways, airports, and railways) or other linear infrastructure (e.g., pipelines and transmission lines) to accommodate potentially unstable subgrades. In these regions, transportation is of vital social, economic, and political importance. However, warming climate conditions are and will impact the integrity of existing and future transportation infrastructure constructed in permafrost regions. Existing analytical frameworks and tools for geohazard and geo-asset management have not included hazards derived from permafrost; where the ubiquity of permafrost results in the hazard being nearly ever-present underlying the infrastructure and ever changing as climate warming continues through time. This paper presents the conceptual design of quantitative risk algorithms for a geohazard assessment system using dynamic segmentation techniques to discretize the infrastructure spatially based on credibility factors for individual dangers specific to permafrost and changing thermal conditions. The hazard (probability of occurrence) will be calculated based on current conditions and projected using IPCC climate projects for the infrastructure region. This discretized approach will allow infrastructure owners to determine current high-risk areas as well as projections for high-risk areas in the future allowing for more efficient infrastructure improvement planning and an overall increase in roadway network safety.