Civil Infrastructure and the Assumption of Stationarity

Climate change has undermined a fundamental civil engineering assumption known as stationarity: past climate conditions are good predictors of future climate conditions. Civil infrastructure encompasses buildings, roads, schools, power plants, water treatment systems, waste disposal systems, communication systems, and more. A sound and working set of infrastructure assets and systems is essential for community growth and economic development. Climate-regulating ecological services, those natural services that maintain climate and weather conditions within known and manageable boundaries, are critical to civil infrastructure design. Therefore, it is essential to understand how these services work and what happens when they are pushed past their limits. Furthermore, when the assumption of stationarity is no longer reliable, civil engineers must modify designs to protect from, adapt to, or accommodate the changing climate conditions.