Modeling the Raveling Propagation in Hot and Dry Climate by Using the Statistical Analysis Concepts

This study first evaluates statistical analysis as a credible method in finding significant reasons affecting the appearance of pavement distress. The urban network of Sohag city in Egypt is the case study where the pavement deformation is tested by statistical analysis against different independent variables. The analysis results are compared with the results of other experimental studies. The visual pavement distresses survey as the statistical analysis results agreed with the experimental results in explaining the appearance and propagation of pavement deformation. This comparison validates the statistical analysis to be used in pavement evaluation rather than conducting field and laboratory tests. Moreover, this agreement illustrates that statistical analysis can be used in generating accurate prediction models. Secondly, a prediction model for raveling distress is derived after investigating the affecting factors by statistical analysis. This model describes the propagation of raveling with time and traffic repetition in hot and dry climate zones.