World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018
Probabilistic Shoreline Evolution Modeling in Response to Sea Level Changes
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018: Hydraulics and Waterways, Water Distribution Systems Analysis, and Smart Water
ABSTRACT
This study aims to predict probabilistic shoreline evolution in response to sea level changes, land subsidence, and onshore sand transport by using Monte Carlo simulation approach. A shoreline evolution model, GenCade, is used to simulate longshore sediment transport and long-term shoreline changes induced by random offshore waves. To determine landward sediment transport and shoreline responses to sea level changes, a modified Bruun rule is implemented into the GenCade model. The other two terms for long-term shoreline changes are also implemented into the GenCade model. A probability density function is used to capture stochastic features of wave heights under both fair weather and extreme weather conditions. It produces time series of wave heights including small and extreme waves based on their probabilities (or frequencies of appearance). A long-term shoreline changes in a hypothetical beach are simulated by considering wave climates, sea level change scenarios, land subsidence, and onshore transport. Probabilistic shoreline changes are computed by using the GenCade and Monte Carlo simulations.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Funding supporting presentation of this study was provided by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Coastal Inlets Research Program (CIRP). Permission was granted by Headquarters, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, to publish this information.
REFERENCES
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018: Hydraulics and Waterways, Water Distribution Systems Analysis, and Smart Water
Pages: 197 - 209
Editor: Sri Kamojjala, Las Vegas Valley Water District
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8142-4
Copyright
© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 31, 2018
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