World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Teleconnection and Possibilities for Drought Forecasting in Dhaka
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018: Groundwater, Sustainability, and Hydro-Climate/Climate Change
ABSTRACT
The aim of this research is to find out an effective method for forecasting drought in Dhaka using El Nino-Southern Oscillation index. Long lead drought forecasting method will be beneficial as timely information about the onset, extent, intensity, and duration of drought can limit losses to economy and environment. With this view, the strength of teleconnection between drought indices SPI, SPEI, and ENSO index (sea surface temperature) was assessed by performing correlation analysis, which shows a strong correlation between average SPI, SPEI values of month October-November-December (OND), and OND SST of NINO 3.4 region for the period 1994–2014. Then discriminant analysis has been performed to evaluate the possibilities of a long lead drought forecast and it was found that droughts are more likely associated with El Nino which is the warm episode of ENSO whereas during La Nina probability of occurrence of wet event increases.
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REFERENCES
Jahan, N., 2005, El Nino-Southern Oscillation: Links And Potential For Long Range Flood Forecasting In The Jamuna And The Surma Rivers, MSc thesis, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET, Dhaka.
Jahan, N., Hasan Zobeyer, A.T.M. & Bhuiyan, M.A., 2006, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Recent Evolution And Possibilities For Long Range Flow Forecasting In The Brahmaputra-Jamuna River, Global NEST Journal, Vol 8, No 3, pp 179–185,2006.
Khaira, U., 2016, Assessment of Future Drought in the Northwest and Central Region of Bangladesh Based on PRECIS Climate Model Projections, BSc thesis, Department of Water Resources Engineering, BUET, Dhaka.
Ropelewski, C. F., and M.S. Halpert, 1996, Quantifying Southern Oscillation precipitation relationships, Journal of Climate, 9, 1043–1059.
Wang, G., and E.A.B. Eltahir, 1999, Use of ENSO information in Medium and Long-Range Forecasting of the Nile Floods. Journal of Climate, Vol. 12, No.6, pp. 1726–1737.
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Published In
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2018: Groundwater, Sustainability, and Hydro-Climate/Climate Change
Pages: 232 - 239
Editor: Sri Kamojjala, Las Vegas Valley Water District
ISBN (Online): 978-0-7844-8141-7
Copyright
© 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: May 31, 2018
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