Characterization of Pavement Condition Index Deterioration Curve Shape for USAF Airfield Pavements

The United States Air Force (USAF) uses PAVER, a computerized pavement management system (PMS), to aid in the planning and cost allocation of airfield pavement maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The ability to model and predict pavement condition accurately is critical to the success of PMS programs. Pavement deterioration prediction techniques are used by PAVER and other pavement management software programs to estimate pavement condition over time. Pavement management literature indicates that the deterioration trend is curvilinear and monotonically decreasing in nature. In practice, the deterioration curve is often assumed to be linear. This research used the consolidated USAF PAVER database to characterize the shape of the deterioration curve for United States Air Force airfield pavements as linear or non-linear. The database contains over 10,000 pavement condition index (PCI) inspections comprising more than 20 years of PCI data gathered on military airfields. Statistical analyses were performed to establish typical deterioration rates of like pavements in the database with similar ages at time of inspection. The results were compared to determine if deterioration rates varied with age, indicating a curvilinear relationship, or were constant with age, indicating a linear relationship.