A Modal Shift Mechanism in Port-Hinterland Transport Based on Shipper’s Choice Behavior

Modal shift is considered a promising way to mitigate port congestion and related issues in port-hinterland transport. A prerequisite for the realization of modal shift is to understand the shifting mechanism. Given that whether the modal shift will be achieved depends on the shipper’s choice behavior; this paper aims to explore the modal shift mechanism from the shipper’s choice behavior. For this purpose, a discrete choice model based on random coefficients logit model is developed to analyze the shipper’s behavior and modal shift mechanism. The data to calibrate the model was collected from a questionnaire survey by using stated preference technique. The result shows that total transport time is the most important factor influencing the modal shift, followed by the total transport time and its fluctuation. It also reveals that lowering the cost of the road-rail combined transport chain may be the most practical and acceptable way to realize the modal shift.