Impact Analysis of Public Transport Fare Adjustment on Travel Mode Choice for Travelers in Beijing

The impact of a public transport fare adjustment on the travel mode choice for residents is studied in this thesis. Analyzing the macro temporal and spatial variation of public transport passenger flow characteristics before and after the fare adjustment, it was found that there was a great impact of fare adjustment on the travel of residents. Through a questionnaire survey, the influence level of the fare adjustment, and the characteristics of travel mode transfer for commuters and non-commuters were different. Based on the temporal and spatial feature vectors of smart card data for public transport travelers, the commuters’ classification based on machine learning was proposed. Using massive public transit smart card data of about 13 million every day in Beijing, including rail, bus and public bicycles, the accurate classification of commuters and non-commuters was achieved, which proved that the classification accuracy reached 94.24%. Based on the accurate classification and significance analysis on the temporal and spatial trip characteristics of different types of public transport travelers, the effect difference of the public transport fare adjustment for the travel frequency, public transport travel mode choice of commuters or non-commuters was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that, for public transport commuters, the proportion of travelers whose travel frequency using rail and bus obviously decreased was 14.90% and 25.47%, respectively, while 3.73% of commuters transferred from rail to bus. On the other hand, for non-commuters, the proportion of travelers whose travel frequency using rail and bus obviously decreased was 21.32% and 26.96%, respectively. The decreasing rate of rail travel frequency for non-commuters was greater than that for commuters, while the decreasing rate of bus travel frequency for two types of travelers was basically equal. The research conclusion provides scientific support and useful reference to the public transit network planning, operation management and policy implementation impact assessment.