High-Speed Rail Competitiveness Analysis in the Guangzhou-Zhaoqing Transport Corridor with Mixed RP/SP Data

In order to analyze the capacity of the opening high-speed rail (HSR) to compete against the existing alternatives in the Guangzhou-Zhaoqing transport corridor, a mixed stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) is adopted to calculate tourists’ preference pattern for alternatives. Twelve potential variables, preliminary selecting from personal attributes, travel characteristics, and transport characteristics, are conducted to the binary logit model (BL) and the multinomial logit model (MNL) to forecast the market share of alternatives before and after the opening the HSR respectively. The result shows that before the opening of HSR, the market share of coach and conventional railway (CR) are 68.43% and 31.57%, respectively. However, after the opening of HSR, HSR attracts 62.99% market share, which is composed of 36.21% from the coach and 26.78% from the CR. The conclusion provides a foundation for predicting the share rate of passenger flow for establishing intercity railway.