An Improved Travel Time Estimation Method without Signal Timing Data Based on an Individual Probe Car

This study brings forward an improved travel time estimation method without signal timing data for an individual probe car. The method consisted of three modules, the first module used a fuzzy logic algorithm to determine during which signal interval the target probe car arrives at downstream intersection. The second module estimated travel time for target probe cars that arrived at downstream intersections during the green light interval. The third module estimated travel time for target probe cars that arrived at the downstream intersection during a red light interval. The latter two modules didn’t use real-time signal timing data and mostly relied on probe car data to estimate travel time. VISSIM was used with a 30 second sampling interval and performance was compared to that of traditional, direct methods. After analysis, it was discovered that the improved method out-performs the traditional methods at near-saturated traffic conditions.