Chapter
May 31, 2013
Chapter 8

Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of Uncertainties

Publication: Climate Change Modeling, Mitigation, and Adaptation
First page of PDF

Get full access to this chapter

View all available purchase options and get full access to this chapter.

8.7 References

Allen, M. R., Stott, P. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Schnur, R., and Delworth, T. L. (2000). “Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change.” Nature, 407(6804), 617–620.
Anandhi, A., Srinivas, V. V., Nanjundiah, R. S., and Kumar, D. N. (2008). “Downscaling precipitation to river basin in India for IPCCSRES scenarios using support vector machine.” International Journal of Climatology, 28(3), 401–420.
Arnell, N. W. (2004). “Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios.” Glob Environ Change, 14, 31–52.
Bardossy, A., Duckstein, L., and Bogardi, I. (1995). “Fuzzy rule-based classification of atmospheric circulation patterns.” International Journal of Climatology, 15(10), 1087–1097.
Barrow, E. M., Hulme, M., and Semenov, M. (1996). “Effect of using different methods in the construction of climate change scenarios: examples for Europe.” Climate Research, 7, 195–211.
Benestad, R. E., and Forland, E. J. (2000). “Local climate scenarios for Norway based on MPI’s ECHAM/OPYC3, a new DNMI data analysis, and the common EOF method.” International Scientific Meeting on the Detection and Modelling of Recent Climate Change and its Effects on a Regional Scale, Tarragona, Spain, 471–481.
Bogárdi, I., Matyasovszky, I., Bárdossy, A., Duckstein, L. (1994). “A hydroclimatological model of areal drought.” J. Hydrol., 153, 245–264.
Booij, M. J., Huisjes, M., and Hoekstra, A. Y. (2006). “Uncertainty in climate change impacts on low flows.” 5th FRIEND World Conference, Havana, CUBA, 401–406.
Buishand, T. A., and Brandsma, T. (2001). “Multisite simulation of daily precipitation and temperature in the Rhine basin by nearest-neighbor resampling.” Water Resources Research, 39(11), 2761–2776.
Buytaert, W., Celleri, R., and Timbe, L. (2009). “Predicting climate change impacts on water resources in the tropical Andes: Effects of GCM uncertainty.” Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07406,
Cavazos, T. (1999). “Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas.” Journal of Climate, 12(5), 1506–1523.
Cawley, G. C., and Dorling, S. R. (1996). “Reproducing a subjective classification scheme for atmospheric circulation patterns over the United Kingdom, using a neural network.” In Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN-96), pp. 281–286. Springer, Bochum.
Conway, D., and Jones, P. D. (1998). “The use of weather types and air flow indices for GCM downscaling.” Journal of Hydrology, 212–213, 348–361.
Corti, S., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N. (1999). “Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes.” Nature, 398(6730), 799–802.
Crane, R. G., and Hewitson, B. C. (1998). “Doubled CO2 precipitation changes for the susquehanna basin: Down-scaling from the genesis general circulation model.” International Journal of Climatology, 18(1), 65–76.
Davies, D. L., and Bouldin, D. W. (1979). “A cluster separation measure.” IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Machine Intell., 1, 224–227.
Dempster, A. P. (1967). “Upper and Lower Probabilities Induced by a Multivalued Mapping.” The Annals of Statistics, 28, 325–339.
Dibike, Y. B., and Coulibaly, P. (2005). “Temporal neural networks for downscaling climate variability and extremes.” IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN 2005), Montreal, CANADA, 135–144.
Drakopoulos, J. A. (1995). “Probabilities, possibilities, and fuzzy sets.” Fuzzy Sets Systems, 75(1), 1–15.
Dubois, D. (2006). “Possibility theory and statistical reasoning.” Comput. Stat. Data Anal., 51, 47–69.
Dubois, D. and Prade, H. (1992). “On the combination of evidence in various mathematical frameworks.” Reliability Data Collection and Analysis. Brussels, ECSC, EEC, EAFC, 213–241.
Dunn, J. (1974). “Well separated clusters and optimal fuzzy partitions.” Journal of Cybernetics, 4, 95–104.
Enke, W., Schneider, F., and Deutschlander, T. (2005). “A novel scheme to derive optimized circulation pattern classifications for downscaling and forecast purposes.” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 82(1–2), 51–63.
Ferson, S., and Kreinovich, V. (2002). Representation, Propagation, and Aggregation of Uncertainty. Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA.
Ferson, S., Kreinovich, V., Ginzburg, L., Myers, D. S., and Sentz, K. (2002). Constructing Probability Boxes and Dempster-Shafer Structures. Sandia National Laboratories 2002-0835.
Forest, C. E., Stone, P. H., Sokolov, A. P., Allen, M. R., and Webster, M. D. (2002). “Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations.” Science, 295(5552), 113–117.
Fowler, H. J., Blenkinsop, S., and Tebaldi, C. (2007). “Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling.” International Journal of Climatology, 27(12), 1547–1578.
Ghosh, S., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2006). “Future rainfall scenario over Orissa with GCM projections by statistical downscaling.” Current Science, 90(3), 396–404.
Ghosh, S., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2007). “Nonparametric methods for modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty in drought assessment.” Water Resources Research, 43(7).
Ghosh, S., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2008). “Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow using relevance vector machine.” Advances in Water Resources, 31(1), 132–146.
Ghosh, S and Mujumdar, P. P. (2009), “Climate change impact assessment-uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability,” Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere (AGU), 114, D18113,
Giorgi, F., and Mearns, L. O. (2003). “Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method.” Geophysical Research Letters, 30(12), 1629,
Goodess, C., and Palutikof, J. (1998). “Development of daily rainfall scenarios for southeast Spain using a circulation-type approach to downscaling.” International Journal of Climatology, 18(10), 1051–1083.
Greene, A.M., Goddard, L., and Lall, U. (2006). “Probabilistic multimodel regional temperature change projections.” Journal of Climate, 19 (17), 4326–4343.
Hay, L. E., McCabe, G. J., Wolock, D. M., and Ayers, M. A. (1991). “Simulation of precipitation by weather type analysis.” Water Resources Research, 27(4), 493–501.
Haylock, M. R., and Goodess, C. M. (2004). “Interannual variability of European extreme winter rainfall and links with mean large-scale circulation.” International Journal of Climatology, 24(6), 759–76.
Hughes, J. P., Guttorp, P., and Charles, S. P. (1999). “A non-homogeneous hidden Markov model for precipitation occurrence.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics, 48, 15–30.
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., and Miller H.L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Jones, R. N., Chiew, F. H. S., Boughton, W. C., and Zhang, L. (2006). “Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models.” Advances in Water Resources, 29(10), 1419–1429.
Jones, P. D., Hulme, M., and Briffa, K. R. (1993). “A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme.” International Journal of Climatology, 13(6), 655–63.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woolen, J., Zhu, Y., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Leetma, A., Reynolds, R., Jenne, R. and Joseph, D. (1996). “The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.” Bullet. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471.
Karl, T. R., Wang, W. C., Schlesinger, M. E., Knight, R. W., and Portman, D. (1990). “A method of relating general-circulation model simulated climate to the observed local climate.1. Seasonal statistics.” Journal of Climate, 3(10), 1053–1079.
Katz, R. W. (2002). “Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies.” Climate Research, 20, 167–185.
Kay, A. L., Davies, H. N., Bell, V. A., and Jones, R. G. (2009). “Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England.” Climatic Change, 92(1–2), 41–63.
Kleinen, T., and Petschel-Held, G. (2007). “Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change.” Climatic Change, 81(3–4), 283–312.
Klir, G., and Yuan, B. (1995). Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic: Theory and Applications. Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
Knutti, R., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., and Plattner, G. K. (2002). “Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles.” Nature, 416(6882), 719–723.
Lafferty, J., McCallum, A., and Pereira, F. (2001). “Conditional random fields: Probabilistic models for segmenting and labeling sequence data.” In Proc. 18th International Conf. on Machine Learning, edited by Brodley C.E., and Danyluk A.P., Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, pp. 282–289.
Lall, U., Rajagopalan, B., and Torboton, D. G. (1996). “A nonparametric wet/dry spell model for resampling daily precipitation.” Water Resources Research, 32(9), 2803–2823.
Lall, U., and Sharma, A. (1996). “A nearest neighbour bootstrap for time series resampling.” Water Resources Research, 32(3), 679–693.
Liang, X. Z., Wang, W. C., and Dudek, M. P. (1996). “Northern hemispheric interannual teleconnection patterns and their changes due to the greenhouse effect.” Journal of Climate, 9(2), 465–479.
Lorenzo, M. N., Taboada, J. J, and Gimeno, L. (2008). “Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain).” International Journal of Climatology, 28(11), 1493–505.
Luo, W. B., and Caselton, B. (1997). “Using Dempster–Shafer Theory to Represent Climate Change Uncertainties.” Journal of Environmental Management, 49, 73–93.
Maurer, E. P., and Duffy, P. B. (2005). “Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California.” Geophysical Research Letters, 32(3), L03704,
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J. and Kleist, J. (1993). “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale.” In Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, pp. 179–184.
Minville, M., Brissette, F., and Leconte, R. (2008). “Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed.” Journal of Hydrology, 358(1–2), 70–83.
Morgan, M. G., and Keith, D. W. (1995). “Climate-change–Subjective judgements by climate experts.” Environmental Science Technology, 29(10), A468–A476.
Mujumdar, P. P., and Ghosh, S. (2008). “Modeling GCM and scenario uncertainty using a possibilistic approach: Application to the Mahanadi River, India.” Water Resources Research, 44(6).
Murphy, J. M., Sexton, D. M. H., Barnett, D. N., Jones, G. S., Webb, M. J., and Collins, M. (2004). “Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations.” Nature, 430(7001), 768–772.
New, M., and Hulme, M. (2000). “Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: A Monte Carlo approach.” Int. Assessment, 1, 203–213.
Nocedal, J., and Wright, S. J. (1999). Numerical optimization, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Prudhomme, C., and Davies, H. (2009). “Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: Future climate.” Climatic Change, 93(1–2), 197–222.
Prudhomme, C., Jakob, D., and Svensson, C. (2003). “Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments.” Journal of Hydrology, 277(1–2), 1–23.
Prudhomme, C., Reynard, N., and Crooks, S. (2002). “Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: Where are we now?” Hydrological Processes, 16(6), 1137–1150.
Rabiner, L. (1989). “A tutorial on hidden Markov models and selected applications in speech recognition.” In Proceedings of the IEEE, 77(2):257–285.
Rajagopalan, B., and Lall, U. (1999). “A k-nearest-neighbor simulator for daily precipitation and other variables.” Water Resources Research, 35(10), 3089–3101.
Raje, D., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2009). “A conditional random field based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin.” Water Resources Research, 45(10), W10404.
Raje, D., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2010a). “Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change.” Advances in Water Resources, 33, 312–326.
Raje, D., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2010b). “Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling.” Water Resources Research, 46, W07543.
Raje, D., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2010c). “Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches.” Advances in Water Resources.
Richardson, C.W., and Wright, D. A. (1984). WGEN: a model for generating daily weather variables. ARS-8, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Washington, DC.
Rowell, D. P. (2006). “A demonstration of the uncertainty in projections of UK climate change resulting from regional model formulation.” Climatic Change, 79(3–4), 243–257.
Scott, D.W. (1992), Multivariate Density Estimation, Theory, Practice, and Visualization, John Wiley, Hoboken, N. J.
Sentz, K., and Ferson, S. (2002). Combination of Evidence in Dempster-Shafer Theory. Sandia National Laboratories 2002–4015.
Shafer, G. (1976). A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Simonovic, S. P., and Li, L. (2003). “Methodology for assessment of climate change impacts on large-scale flood protection system.” J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage., 129(5), 361–371.
Simonovic, S. P., and Li, L. (2004). “Sensitivity of the red river basin flood protection system to climate variability and change.” Water Resour. Manag., 18, 89–110.
Spott, M. (1999). “A theory of possibility distributions.” Fuzzy Sets Systems, 102(2), 135–155.
Srikanthan, R., and McMahon, T. A. (2001). “Stochastic Generation of Annual, Monthly and Daily Climate Data: A Review.” Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sci., 5, 643–670.
Stainforth, D. A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D. J., Kettleborough, J. A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J. M., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L. A., Spicer, R. A., Thorpe, A. J., and Allen, M. R. (2005). “Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases.” Nature, 433(7024), 403–406.
Steinemann, A. (2003). “Drought indicators and triggers: A stochastic approach to evaluation.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 39(5), 1217–1233.
Stott, P. A., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D. and Kettleborough, K. A. (2008). “Observed climate change constrains the likelihood of extreme future global warming.” Tellus, 60B, 76–81.
Sutton, C., and McCallum, A. (2006). “An introduction to conditional random fields for relational learning.” In Introduction to Statistical Relational Learning, edited by Getoor L., and Taskar B., MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 1–35.
Tarboton, D. G., Sharma, A., and Lall, U. (1998). “Disaggregation procedures for stochastic hydrology based on nonparametric density estimation.” Water Resour. Res., 34(1), 107–119.
Tatli, H., Dalfes, H. N., and Mentes, S. (2004). “A statistical downscaling method for monthly total precipitation over Turkey.” International Journal of Climatology, 24(2), 161–180.
Tebaldi, C., Mearns, L. O., Nychka, D., and Smith, R. L. (2004). “Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations.” Geophysical Research Letters, 31(24), L24213,
Tebaldi, C., Smith, R. L., Nychka, D., and Mearns, L. O. (2005). “Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles.” Journal of Climate, 18(10), 1524–1540.
Trigo, R. M., and Palutikof, J. P. (1999). “Simulation of daily temperatures for climate change scenarios over Portugal: a neural network model approach.” Climate Research, 13(1), 45–59.
Tripathi, S., Srinivas, V., and Nanjundiah, R. (2006). “Dowinscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach.” Journal of Hydrology, 330(3–4), 621–640.
von Storch, H., Langenberg, H., and Feser, F. (2000). “A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes.” Monthly Weather Review, 128(10), 3664–3673.
Vrac, M., Stein, M., and Hayhoe, K. (2007). “Statistical downscaling of precipitation through nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing.” Climate Research, 34(3), 169–184.
Wilks, D. S. (1999). “Multisite downscaling of daily precipitation with a stochastic weather generator.” Climate Research, 11(2), 125–136.
Wilks, D. S., and Wilby, R. L. (1999). “The weather generation game: a review of stochastic weather models.” Progress in Physical Geography, 23(3), 329–357.
Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., and Smith, G. (1990). “Obtaining sub-grid-scale information from coarse-resolution general-circulation model output.” Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 95(D2), 1943–1953.
Wilby, R. L. (2005). “Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment.” Hydrological Processes, 19(16), 3201–3219.
Wilby, R. L., and Harris, I. (2006). “A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK.” Water Resources Research, 42(2).
Wilby, R. L., and Wigley, T. M. L. (1997). “Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations.” Progress in Physical Geography, 21, 530–548.
Wilby, R. L., Wigley, T. M. L., Conway, D., Jones, P. D., Hewitson, B. C., Main, J., and Wilks, D. S. (1998). “Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods.” Water Resources Research, 34(11), 2995–3008.
Wilson, L. L., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Skyllingstad, E. (1992). “A hierarchical stochastic model of largescale atmospheric circulation patterns and multiple station daily rainfall.” J. Geophys. Res., 97(ND3), 2791–2809.
Xu, C. Y. (1999). “Climate change and hydrologic models: A review of existing gaps and recent research developments.” Water Resources Management, 13(5), 369–382.
Yager, R. R. (1987). “On the Dempster-Shafer framework and new combination rules.” Information Sciences, 41, 93–137.
Yu, D., and Frincke, D. (2005). “Alert Confidence Fusion in Intrusion Detection Systems with Extended Dempster-Shafer Theory.” In ACM-SE 43: Proceedings of the 43rd annual southeast regional conference, 2, 142–147.
Zadeh, L. A. (1978). “Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility.” Fuzzy Sets Systems, 1(1), 3–28.
Zhang, L. (1994). “Representation, independence, and combination of evidence in the Dempster-Shafer theory.” In Advances in the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. John Wiley Sons, Inc., New York, pp. 51–69.
Zorita, E., and von Storch, H. (1999). “The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods.” Journal of Climate, 12(8), 2474–89.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Climate Change Modeling, Mitigation, and Adaptation
Climate Change Modeling, Mitigation, and Adaptation
Pages: 177 - 218

History

Published online: May 31, 2013

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Chapter
$35.00
Add to cart
Buy E-book
$187.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Chapter
$35.00
Add to cart
Buy E-book
$187.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share