Study on Regression Analysis and Simulation Feedback-Prediction Methods of Super High Arch Dam during Construction and First Impounding Process

The increasing number of super-high arch dam being built around the world demands accurate methodologies for the realistic evaluations of the working performance and dam safety. A regression model of dam horizontal displacements during construction and first impounding process is given. It takes into account relevant factors such as construction process, water level, temperature change and time component. Elastic modulus of concrete and rock materials are feedback based on the displacement caused by water level. The process of dam construction and first impounding is simulated based on feedback elastic modulus with the finite element method. Then the dam performance and safety are predicted and evaluated according to the simulation results. Xiaowan arch dam is studied as an example. The feedback elastic moduli are bigger than the design values. Radial displacement is mainly determined by water level and affected significantly by temperature change and time component. Results from the regression analysis and the simulation method are consistent well with monitoring data. Thus the performance of Xiaowan arch dam mainly including displacements, stresses, and safety in near future can be predicted with the proposed method.