Conceptual Risk-Based Decision Support Methodology for Improved Near Real-Time Response to WDS Failures

This paper describes a conceptual risk-based decision support methodology for the operation of water distribution systems (WDS). More specifically, the methodology focuses on providing near real-time support to network operators to improve their response to failure conditions, such as pipe bursts, equipment failures, etc. The risk related to the impact of failures in WDS is used to guide, in near real-time, the operator's approach and response to the failures. The impact metric of each failure is formed by a value tree comprising several basic impact factors affecting either the water utility or the customers. The impact assessment is undertaken by using a pressure-driven hydraulic model coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS) considering explicitly the vulnerability of individual types of customers within the areas (potentially) affected by the failures under investigation. An intervention manager is also developed to assist the operator in testing the appropriateness of proposed interventions/responses to each failure. The intervention manager provides suggestions for improved courses of action determined through offline analyses of the system, stored in an interventions knowledge base in the form of ordered sets. The reduction of risk for each intervention is evaluated and compared to a "do nothing" alternative explicitly supporting risk-aware, near real-time decision making.