Risk Assessment Embedded with Prospect Theory for Groundwater Protection from Terror Threats

Protection of drinking water reserves has been the primary concern for governing agencies, environmental stakeholders, and the general populous worldwide. The capability of engineers and planners to incorporate risk assessment in policy-making, offers a valuable tool for implementation of sound policy regarding groundwater protection, while providing an open forum type vehicle to incorporate public inputs in priority setting for protection decisions. This paper illustrates a risk assessment methodology based on prospect theory based on prospect theory systematically analyze alternative recharge zone protection approaches and respective probabilistic impact on groundwater resources, as motivated by recent development over the recharge zone of a sole source aquifer for one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. Logical relationships, characterized using fault tree analysis, accurately describe pathways leading from the initial policy decision to final consequences. Comparison of these risk probabilities with limits based on revealed preference concept and prospect theory, affords decision-makers the ability to screen alternatives for acceptability.