Support Vector Machine Approach to Downscale Precipitation in Climate Change Scenarios
Publication: World Environmental and Water Resource Congress 2006: Examining the Confluence of Environmental and Water Concerns
Abstract
Concern over changes in global climate has increased in recent years with improvement in understanding of atmospheric dynamics and growth in evidence of climate link to long-term variability in hydrologic records. Climate impact studies rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. Towards this, the past decade has witnessed significant progress in development of downscaling models to cascade the climate information provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) at coarse spatial resolution to the scale relevant for hydrologic studies. While a plethora of downscaling models have been applied successfully to mid-latitude regions, a few studies are available on tropical regions where the atmosphere is known to have more complex behavior. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling to interpret climate change signals provided by GCMs over tropical regions of India. Climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each meteorological sub-division of India are identified. Following this, cluster analysis is applied on climate data to identify the wet and dry seasons in each year. The data pertaining to climate variables and precipitation of each meteorological sub-division is then used to develop SVM based downscaling model for each season. Subsequently, the SVM based downscaling model is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological inputs to the meteorological sub-divisions. The results obtained from the SVM downscaling model are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India.
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© 2006 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Published online: Apr 26, 2012
ASCE Technical Topics:
- Analysis (by type)
- Artificial intelligence and machine learning
- Business management
- Climate change
- Climates
- Computer programming
- Computing in civil engineering
- Developing countries
- Engineering fundamentals
- Environmental engineering
- Hydrologic models
- Meteorology
- Models (by type)
- Practice and Profession
- Precipitation
- Spatial analysis
- Spatial data
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