Finding the Best Comparable Dataset for Estimating Parameters for a Water Quality Model

The purpose of this study is to estimate the changes in total phosphorus (TP) concentrations that can be expected in a large reservoir that is to be constructed as part of the Everglades restoration. This study describes how the best comparable calibration dataset was selected in order to find parameter estimates to model the expected performance of the new reservoir. A database of 18 Florida lakes and a reservoir were used to determine systems comparable to the possible TP kinetics of the proposed Everglades Agricultural Area Storage Reservoir (EAASR). Crescent Lake and Lake Istokpoga were found to be the closest comparables. Assessment of the two lake datasets showed that the Lake Istokpoga historical data were preferable. The mass balance terms, period of record, and averaging period were determined for use in TP settling rate calibration. Mass balance terms were categorized as inflow, outflow and storage. The period of record to be analyzed was selected based on having a minimum amount of trends in input and output water quality. A monthly averaging period for water quantity and quality was chosen for the period of record based on the quality of the mass balance data and preliminary estimates of hydraulic residence times for the EAASR. Selected results of this procedure are presented for this application.